Integrating water balance and energy system models for improved benefit sharing in transboundary river basins

Water resources and energy system models have mostly been developed separately. However, in many regions, water and energy are tightly coupled in complex ways. This project aims to integrate water and energy system models to explore water-energy interactions and find sustainable solutions under different scenarios for changes in climate, land, energy, and water resources. The approach is interdisciplinary, building on expertise in hydrology (including glaciers), water resources engineering, energy system economics, and engineering, agronomy (irrigated agriculture), and social sciences focusing on resource governance.

We will develop an approach to analyze cases and scenarios for improved benefit sharing (economic, social, and environmental), taking
into account transboundary issues as a complicating factor. The models are forced with expected future climate scenarios on
precipitation, temperature and glacier melt, and socio-economic-ecologic scenarios related to land, water, and energy systems. The tool
development is guided by case studies from the Tajikistan and Uzbekistan region where transboundary water and energy resources
management issues are characterized by different priorities in the upstream and downstream countries. The region is particularly
challenging due to rapid population growth, combined with climate change, leading to glacier retreat, changes in runoff, and water supply
for summer irrigation in lowland and valley areas.

The planned work is organized into five work packages: WP1) Water and energy system status and trends assessment, WP2) Integration
of water and energy models for catchment scale studies WP3) Sustainable scenario assessment, WP4) Training and collaboration, and
WP5) Project management. Work in WP1, WP3, and WP4 will be done in collaboration with our regional partners, PhDs, and
postdoctoral students. Development of model integration is done in Finland by PhDs and postdocs. The models will be tested in WP2 and
implemented in WP3.