A Belief Network Model for Forecasting within the Electricity Sector

Antti Lehtilä; Pekka Silvennoinen; Juhani Vira

doi:10.1016/0040-1625(90)90035-T

A Belief Network Model for Forecasting within the Electricity Sector

Antti Lehtilä, Pekka Silvennoinen^*, Juhani Vira

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper presents a scheme amenable to simulating the decision-making process associated with forecasting the demand and required generating capacity of electricity.

The model comprises a belief network based on a relatively simple influence diagram of the demand formation and supply decisions. A dynamic simulation algorithm, which takes into account the feedback effects of decisions to demand, is applied to the belief network. The basic assumption behind the scheme is that the dependencies guiding the decision process remain relatively stable even in a turbulent marketplace. To illustrate the advantages of this approach the model is validated by reconstructing the demand and supply changes in Finland over the period from 1971 to 1987.

A series of case studies are examined where the simulation is extended to projections in the future. It is concluded that the simulation scheme provides a convenient tool for examining both past decisions and their extrapolations into the future.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	135-150
Journal	Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume	38
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(90)90035-T
Publication status	Published - 1990
MoE publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

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title = "A Belief Network Model for Forecasting within the Electricity Sector",

abstract = "This paper presents a scheme amenable to simulating the decision-making process associated with forecasting the demand and required generating capacity of electricity.The model comprises a belief network based on a relatively simple influence diagram of the demand formation and supply decisions. A dynamic simulation algorithm, which takes into account the feedback effects of decisions to demand, is applied to the belief network. The basic assumption behind the scheme is that the dependencies guiding the decision process remain relatively stable even in a turbulent marketplace. To illustrate the advantages of this approach the model is validated by reconstructing the demand and supply changes in Finland over the period from 1971 to 1987.A series of case studies are examined where the simulation is extended to projections in the future. It is concluded that the simulation scheme provides a convenient tool for examining both past decisions and their extrapolations into the future.",

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AU - Lehtilä, Antti

AU - Silvennoinen, Pekka

AU - Vira, Juhani

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N2 - This paper presents a scheme amenable to simulating the decision-making process associated with forecasting the demand and required generating capacity of electricity.The model comprises a belief network based on a relatively simple influence diagram of the demand formation and supply decisions. A dynamic simulation algorithm, which takes into account the feedback effects of decisions to demand, is applied to the belief network. The basic assumption behind the scheme is that the dependencies guiding the decision process remain relatively stable even in a turbulent marketplace. To illustrate the advantages of this approach the model is validated by reconstructing the demand and supply changes in Finland over the period from 1971 to 1987.A series of case studies are examined where the simulation is extended to projections in the future. It is concluded that the simulation scheme provides a convenient tool for examining both past decisions and their extrapolations into the future.

AB - This paper presents a scheme amenable to simulating the decision-making process associated with forecasting the demand and required generating capacity of electricity.The model comprises a belief network based on a relatively simple influence diagram of the demand formation and supply decisions. A dynamic simulation algorithm, which takes into account the feedback effects of decisions to demand, is applied to the belief network. The basic assumption behind the scheme is that the dependencies guiding the decision process remain relatively stable even in a turbulent marketplace. To illustrate the advantages of this approach the model is validated by reconstructing the demand and supply changes in Finland over the period from 1971 to 1987.A series of case studies are examined where the simulation is extended to projections in the future. It is concluded that the simulation scheme provides a convenient tool for examining both past decisions and their extrapolations into the future.

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DO - 10.1016/0040-1625(90)90035-T

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SP - 135

EP - 150

JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

IS - 2

ER -

A Belief Network Model for Forecasting within the Electricity Sector

Abstract

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