A Belief Network Model for Forecasting within the Electricity Sector

Antti Lehtilä, Pekka Silvennoinen (Corresponding Author), Juhani Vira

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper presents a scheme amenable to simulating the decision-making process associated with forecasting the demand and required generating capacity of electricity.
The model comprises a belief network based on a relatively simple influence diagram of the demand formation and supply decisions. A dynamic simulation algorithm, which takes into account the feedback effects of decisions to demand, is applied to the belief network. The basic assumption behind the scheme is that the dependencies guiding the decision process remain relatively stable even in a turbulent marketplace. To illustrate the advantages of this approach the model is validated by reconstructing the demand and supply changes in Finland over the period from 1971 to 1987.
A series of case studies are examined where the simulation is extended to projections in the future. It is concluded that the simulation scheme provides a convenient tool for examining both past decisions and their extrapolations into the future.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)135-150
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume38
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1990
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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Electricity
Bayesian networks
Finland
Extrapolation
Decision Making
Decision making
Feedback
Computer simulation
Electricity sector
Network model
Simulation
Dependency (Psychology)

Cite this

Lehtilä, Antti ; Silvennoinen, Pekka ; Vira, Juhani. / A Belief Network Model for Forecasting within the Electricity Sector. In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 1990 ; Vol. 38, No. 2. pp. 135-150.
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A Belief Network Model for Forecasting within the Electricity Sector. / Lehtilä, Antti; Silvennoinen, Pekka (Corresponding Author); Vira, Juhani.

In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 38, No. 2, 1990, p. 135-150.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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