A framework for comprehensive impact assessment in the case of an extreme winter scenario, considering integrative aspects of systemic vulnerability and resilience

R. Molarius, P. Tuomaala, K. Piira, M. Räikkönen, C. Aubrecht, M. Polese, G. Zuccaro, K. Pilli-Sihvola, K. Rannat

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    In northern regions, society can be seriously interrupted by a prolonged electricity network blackout due to a winter storm that cuts off power, communication and road networks. Due to hard winter weather it is essential to enhance the resilience of society to avoid danger to life. This can be achieved by developing new models to enhance preparedness for coming disaster events and to support rescue and other authorities to focus their resources on the most vulnerable targets in actual cases of emergencies. This paper presents a part of the results of activities performed within the EU project 'CRISMA - Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness'. It focuses on improved resilience by proposing a framework for systemic vulnerability and impact analyses. The described work is conceptually based on risk-hazard and socio-constructive approaches. It is illustrated by means of a scenario consisting of a prolonged blackout together with an extreme winter storm in northern Finland. Scenario components include the integrative analysis of rapidly cooling houses and exposed vulnerable people as well as estimations of the potential costs of the crisis situation. The model can be extended to handle passable routes and the deployment of available rescue and snow ploughing equipment.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)131-158
    JournalComputer Modeling in Engineering and Sciences
    Volume109-110
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2015
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

    Fingerprint

    Resilience
    Vulnerability
    Extremes
    Scenarios
    Road Network
    Snow
    Disaster
    Electricity
    Emergency
    Communication Networks
    Weather
    Hazard
    Disasters
    Cooling
    Hazards
    Resources
    Target
    Communication
    Costs
    Modeling

    Keywords

    • crisis modelling
    • CRISMA
    • extreme winter
    • vulnerability

    Cite this

    @article{6d89b609c8914494aba6c2d84462c513,
    title = "A framework for comprehensive impact assessment in the case of an extreme winter scenario, considering integrative aspects of systemic vulnerability and resilience",
    abstract = "In northern regions, society can be seriously interrupted by a prolonged electricity network blackout due to a winter storm that cuts off power, communication and road networks. Due to hard winter weather it is essential to enhance the resilience of society to avoid danger to life. This can be achieved by developing new models to enhance preparedness for coming disaster events and to support rescue and other authorities to focus their resources on the most vulnerable targets in actual cases of emergencies. This paper presents a part of the results of activities performed within the EU project 'CRISMA - Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness'. It focuses on improved resilience by proposing a framework for systemic vulnerability and impact analyses. The described work is conceptually based on risk-hazard and socio-constructive approaches. It is illustrated by means of a scenario consisting of a prolonged blackout together with an extreme winter storm in northern Finland. Scenario components include the integrative analysis of rapidly cooling houses and exposed vulnerable people as well as estimations of the potential costs of the crisis situation. The model can be extended to handle passable routes and the deployment of available rescue and snow ploughing equipment.",
    keywords = "crisis modelling, CRISMA, extreme winter, vulnerability",
    author = "R. Molarius and P. Tuomaala and K. Piira and M. R{\"a}ikk{\"o}nen and C. Aubrecht and M. Polese and G. Zuccaro and K. Pilli-Sihvola and K. Rannat",
    year = "2015",
    doi = "10.3970/cmes.2015.109.131",
    language = "English",
    volume = "109-110",
    pages = "131--158",
    journal = "Computer Modeling in Engineering and Sciences",
    issn = "1526-1492",
    publisher = "Tech Science Press",
    number = "2",

    }

    A framework for comprehensive impact assessment in the case of an extreme winter scenario, considering integrative aspects of systemic vulnerability and resilience. / Molarius, R.; Tuomaala, P.; Piira, K.; Räikkönen, M.; Aubrecht, C.; Polese, M.; Zuccaro, G.; Pilli-Sihvola, K.; Rannat, K.

    In: Computer Modeling in Engineering and Sciences, Vol. 109-110, No. 2, 2015, p. 131-158.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - A framework for comprehensive impact assessment in the case of an extreme winter scenario, considering integrative aspects of systemic vulnerability and resilience

    AU - Molarius, R.

    AU - Tuomaala, P.

    AU - Piira, K.

    AU - Räikkönen, M.

    AU - Aubrecht, C.

    AU - Polese, M.

    AU - Zuccaro, G.

    AU - Pilli-Sihvola, K.

    AU - Rannat, K.

    PY - 2015

    Y1 - 2015

    N2 - In northern regions, society can be seriously interrupted by a prolonged electricity network blackout due to a winter storm that cuts off power, communication and road networks. Due to hard winter weather it is essential to enhance the resilience of society to avoid danger to life. This can be achieved by developing new models to enhance preparedness for coming disaster events and to support rescue and other authorities to focus their resources on the most vulnerable targets in actual cases of emergencies. This paper presents a part of the results of activities performed within the EU project 'CRISMA - Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness'. It focuses on improved resilience by proposing a framework for systemic vulnerability and impact analyses. The described work is conceptually based on risk-hazard and socio-constructive approaches. It is illustrated by means of a scenario consisting of a prolonged blackout together with an extreme winter storm in northern Finland. Scenario components include the integrative analysis of rapidly cooling houses and exposed vulnerable people as well as estimations of the potential costs of the crisis situation. The model can be extended to handle passable routes and the deployment of available rescue and snow ploughing equipment.

    AB - In northern regions, society can be seriously interrupted by a prolonged electricity network blackout due to a winter storm that cuts off power, communication and road networks. Due to hard winter weather it is essential to enhance the resilience of society to avoid danger to life. This can be achieved by developing new models to enhance preparedness for coming disaster events and to support rescue and other authorities to focus their resources on the most vulnerable targets in actual cases of emergencies. This paper presents a part of the results of activities performed within the EU project 'CRISMA - Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness'. It focuses on improved resilience by proposing a framework for systemic vulnerability and impact analyses. The described work is conceptually based on risk-hazard and socio-constructive approaches. It is illustrated by means of a scenario consisting of a prolonged blackout together with an extreme winter storm in northern Finland. Scenario components include the integrative analysis of rapidly cooling houses and exposed vulnerable people as well as estimations of the potential costs of the crisis situation. The model can be extended to handle passable routes and the deployment of available rescue and snow ploughing equipment.

    KW - crisis modelling

    KW - CRISMA

    KW - extreme winter

    KW - vulnerability

    U2 - 10.3970/cmes.2015.109.131

    DO - 10.3970/cmes.2015.109.131

    M3 - Article

    VL - 109-110

    SP - 131

    EP - 158

    JO - Computer Modeling in Engineering and Sciences

    JF - Computer Modeling in Engineering and Sciences

    SN - 1526-1492

    IS - 2

    ER -