A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex long-term decisions

Jyri Hanski, Tony Rosqvist

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

Abstract

The long lifetimes of infrastructure have implications for investment decision-making and it is difficult for purely monetary indicators to capture all the relevant issues. Furthermore, uncertainties grow as the investment period grows. Long-term perspective calls for the use of scenarios, and usually requires the opinions of different stakeholders and experts. Furthermore, performance cannot always be modelled by formal methods, such as simulation. Because of the deep uncertainties involved, organizations' strategies should be robust, i.e. any strategy implementation should perform adequately irrespective of which scenario will materialize. Strategy Robustness Visualisation Method is a method for taking the deep uncertainties related to long-term strategies and various stakeholder perspectives into account. The key feature is the modelling of uncertainty of the quantitative indicators by {min, max}-values plotted on radar plots such that each strategy option's performance, under each scenario, can be visually inspected for uncertainty and robustness.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationRisk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice - Proceedings of the 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016
PublisherTaylor & Francis
ISBN (Print)978-1-138-02997-2
Publication statusPublished - 2016
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
Event26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016 - Glasgow, United Kingdom
Duration: 25 Sep 201629 Sep 2016

Conference

Conference26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016
Abbreviated titleESREL 2016
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityGlasgow
Period25/09/1629/09/16

Fingerprint

visualization
stakeholder
decision making
infrastructure
radar
modeling
simulation
decision
method
indicator
opinion

Keywords

  • robust
  • decision-making
  • visualisation
  • uncertainty

Cite this

Hanski, J., & Rosqvist, T. (2016). A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex long-term decisions. In Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice - Proceedings of the 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016 Taylor & Francis.
Hanski, Jyri ; Rosqvist, Tony. / A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex long-term decisions. Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice - Proceedings of the 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016. Taylor & Francis, 2016.
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Hanski, J & Rosqvist, T 2016, A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex long-term decisions. in Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice - Proceedings of the 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016. Taylor & Francis, 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016, Glasgow, United Kingdom, 25/09/16.

A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex long-term decisions. / Hanski, Jyri; Rosqvist, Tony.

Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice - Proceedings of the 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016. Taylor & Francis, 2016.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

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AB - The long lifetimes of infrastructure have implications for investment decision-making and it is difficult for purely monetary indicators to capture all the relevant issues. Furthermore, uncertainties grow as the investment period grows. Long-term perspective calls for the use of scenarios, and usually requires the opinions of different stakeholders and experts. Furthermore, performance cannot always be modelled by formal methods, such as simulation. Because of the deep uncertainties involved, organizations' strategies should be robust, i.e. any strategy implementation should perform adequately irrespective of which scenario will materialize. Strategy Robustness Visualisation Method is a method for taking the deep uncertainties related to long-term strategies and various stakeholder perspectives into account. The key feature is the modelling of uncertainty of the quantitative indicators by {min, max}-values plotted on radar plots such that each strategy option's performance, under each scenario, can be visually inspected for uncertainty and robustness.

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Hanski J, Rosqvist T. A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex long-term decisions. In Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice - Proceedings of the 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016. Taylor & Francis. 2016