A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex long-term decisions

The long lifetimes of infrastructure have implications for investment decision-making and it is difficult for purely monetary indicators to capture all the relevant issues. Furthermore, uncertainties grow as the investment period grows. Long-term perspective calls for the use of scenarios, and usually requires the opinions of different stakeholders and experts. Furthermore, performance cannot always be modelled by formal methods, such as simulation. Because of the deep uncertainties involved, organizations' strategies should be robust, i.e. any strategy implementation should perform adequately irrespective of which scenario will materialize. Strategy Robustness Visualisation Method is a method for taking the deep uncertainties related to long-term strategies and various stakeholder perspectives into account. The key feature is the modelling of uncertainty of the quantitative indicators by {min, max}-values plotted on radar plots such that each strategy option's performance, under each scenario, can be visually inspected for uncertainty and robustness.