A model-driven approach for incorporating human reliability analysis in early emergency operating procedure development

Nikolaos Papakonstantinou, Markus Porthin, Bryan M. O'Halloran, Douglas L. Van Boussuyt

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Current Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods analyze operator actions in accident scenarios using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods after Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs) and complex system design are largely complete. This paper proposes the early Model-based HRA (eMHRA) method that couples PRA, HRA, and EOP development together and shifts analysis earlier into the complex system design process. By moving the development of these related and important steps in complex system design earlier in the design process, significant modifications to the complex system can be made much more inexpensively and consume much less time to address critical issues found in PRA, HRA, and EOP development. Further, EOP developers can benefit from rapid and early feedback from the HRA and PRA information. A software tool was developed to implement the eMHRA method presented in this paper and is demonstrated in the paper. A case study is presented of a subsystem of a generic Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) civilian nuclear power plant. The case study shows that HRA and EOP insights can be incorporated into PRA models early in the design process to better inform system designers of potential high likelihood failure events in operator actions. The eMHRA method presented in this paper provides a new tool for risk analysts to better predict and understand failure scenario outcomes early in the design process. With this information, engineers will be better able to develop new EOPs and operator interfaces to reduce failure likelihood in due to missed operator recovery actions.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationReliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 2016 Annual
    PublisherIEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers
    Pages1-6
    ISBN (Electronic)978-1-5090-0249-8, 978-1-5090-0248-1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 7 Apr 2016
    MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
    EventAnnual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, RAMS 2016 - Tucson, United States
    Duration: 25 Jan 201628 Jan 2016

    Conference

    ConferenceAnnual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, RAMS 2016
    Abbreviated titleRAMS 2016
    CountryUnited States
    CityTucson
    Period25/01/1628/01/16

    Fingerprint

    Reliability analysis
    Risk assessment
    Large scale systems
    Systems analysis
    Computer operating procedures
    Pressurized water reactors
    Nuclear power plants
    Interfaces (computer)
    Accidents
    Feedback
    Engineers
    Recovery

    Keywords

    • HEP
    • HRA
    • Human Error Probabilities
    • Human Reliability Analysis
    • PRA
    • Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Cite this

    Papakonstantinou, N., Porthin, M., O'Halloran, B. M., & Van Boussuyt, D. L. (2016). A model-driven approach for incorporating human reliability analysis in early emergency operating procedure development. In Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 2016 Annual (pp. 1-6). [7447977] IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers . https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2016.7447977
    Papakonstantinou, Nikolaos ; Porthin, Markus ; O'Halloran, Bryan M. ; Van Boussuyt, Douglas L. / A model-driven approach for incorporating human reliability analysis in early emergency operating procedure development. Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 2016 Annual. IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers , 2016. pp. 1-6
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    abstract = "Current Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods analyze operator actions in accident scenarios using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods after Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs) and complex system design are largely complete. This paper proposes the early Model-based HRA (eMHRA) method that couples PRA, HRA, and EOP development together and shifts analysis earlier into the complex system design process. By moving the development of these related and important steps in complex system design earlier in the design process, significant modifications to the complex system can be made much more inexpensively and consume much less time to address critical issues found in PRA, HRA, and EOP development. Further, EOP developers can benefit from rapid and early feedback from the HRA and PRA information. A software tool was developed to implement the eMHRA method presented in this paper and is demonstrated in the paper. A case study is presented of a subsystem of a generic Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) civilian nuclear power plant. The case study shows that HRA and EOP insights can be incorporated into PRA models early in the design process to better inform system designers of potential high likelihood failure events in operator actions. The eMHRA method presented in this paper provides a new tool for risk analysts to better predict and understand failure scenario outcomes early in the design process. With this information, engineers will be better able to develop new EOPs and operator interfaces to reduce failure likelihood in due to missed operator recovery actions.",
    keywords = "HEP, HRA, Human Error Probabilities, Human Reliability Analysis, PRA, Probabilistic Risk Assessment",
    author = "Nikolaos Papakonstantinou and Markus Porthin and O'Halloran, {Bryan M.} and {Van Boussuyt}, {Douglas L.}",
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    Papakonstantinou, N, Porthin, M, O'Halloran, BM & Van Boussuyt, DL 2016, A model-driven approach for incorporating human reliability analysis in early emergency operating procedure development. in Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 2016 Annual., 7447977, IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers , pp. 1-6, Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, RAMS 2016, Tucson, United States, 25/01/16. https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2016.7447977

    A model-driven approach for incorporating human reliability analysis in early emergency operating procedure development. / Papakonstantinou, Nikolaos; Porthin, Markus; O'Halloran, Bryan M.; Van Boussuyt, Douglas L.

    Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 2016 Annual. IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers , 2016. p. 1-6 7447977.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

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    AU - Papakonstantinou, Nikolaos

    AU - Porthin, Markus

    AU - O'Halloran, Bryan M.

    AU - Van Boussuyt, Douglas L.

    PY - 2016/4/7

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    N2 - Current Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods analyze operator actions in accident scenarios using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods after Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs) and complex system design are largely complete. This paper proposes the early Model-based HRA (eMHRA) method that couples PRA, HRA, and EOP development together and shifts analysis earlier into the complex system design process. By moving the development of these related and important steps in complex system design earlier in the design process, significant modifications to the complex system can be made much more inexpensively and consume much less time to address critical issues found in PRA, HRA, and EOP development. Further, EOP developers can benefit from rapid and early feedback from the HRA and PRA information. A software tool was developed to implement the eMHRA method presented in this paper and is demonstrated in the paper. A case study is presented of a subsystem of a generic Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) civilian nuclear power plant. The case study shows that HRA and EOP insights can be incorporated into PRA models early in the design process to better inform system designers of potential high likelihood failure events in operator actions. The eMHRA method presented in this paper provides a new tool for risk analysts to better predict and understand failure scenario outcomes early in the design process. With this information, engineers will be better able to develop new EOPs and operator interfaces to reduce failure likelihood in due to missed operator recovery actions.

    AB - Current Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods analyze operator actions in accident scenarios using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods after Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs) and complex system design are largely complete. This paper proposes the early Model-based HRA (eMHRA) method that couples PRA, HRA, and EOP development together and shifts analysis earlier into the complex system design process. By moving the development of these related and important steps in complex system design earlier in the design process, significant modifications to the complex system can be made much more inexpensively and consume much less time to address critical issues found in PRA, HRA, and EOP development. Further, EOP developers can benefit from rapid and early feedback from the HRA and PRA information. A software tool was developed to implement the eMHRA method presented in this paper and is demonstrated in the paper. A case study is presented of a subsystem of a generic Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) civilian nuclear power plant. The case study shows that HRA and EOP insights can be incorporated into PRA models early in the design process to better inform system designers of potential high likelihood failure events in operator actions. The eMHRA method presented in this paper provides a new tool for risk analysts to better predict and understand failure scenario outcomes early in the design process. With this information, engineers will be better able to develop new EOPs and operator interfaces to reduce failure likelihood in due to missed operator recovery actions.

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    KW - PRA

    KW - Probabilistic Risk Assessment

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    DO - 10.1109/RAMS.2016.7447977

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    Papakonstantinou N, Porthin M, O'Halloran BM, Van Boussuyt DL. A model-driven approach for incorporating human reliability analysis in early emergency operating procedure development. In Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 2016 Annual. IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers . 2016. p. 1-6. 7447977 https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2016.7447977