A probabilistic approach for a cost-benefit analysis of oil spill management under uncertainty: A Bayesian network model for the Gulf of Finland

Inari Helle*, Heini Ahtiainen, Emilia Luoma, Maria Hänninen, Sakari Kuikka

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

50 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Large-scale oil accidents can inflict substantial costs to the society, as they typically result in expensive oil combating and waste treatment operations and have negative impacts on recreational and environmental values. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) offers a way to assess the economic efficiency of management measures capable of mitigating the adverse effects. However, the irregular occurrence of spills combined with uncertainties related to the possible effects makes the analysis a challenging task. We develop a probabilistic modeling approach for a CBA of oil spill management and apply it in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea. The model has a causal structure, and it covers a large number of factors relevant to the realistic description of oil spills, as well as the costs of oil combating operations at open sea, shoreline clean-up, and waste treatment activities. Further, to describe the effects on environmental benefits, we use data from a contingent valuation survey. The results encourage seeking for cost-effective preventive measures, and emphasize the importance of the inclusion of the costs related to waste treatment and environmental values in the analysis. Although the model is developed for a specific area, the methodology is applicable also to other areas facing the risk of oil spills as well as to other fields that need to cope with the challenging combination of low probabilities, high losses and major uncertainties.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)122-132
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Environmental Management
Volume158
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2015
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

This research was conducted as a part of the project “Protection of the Baltic Sea: Benefits, Costs and Policy Instruments (PROBAPS)”. The authors wish to thank the four Finnish ministries that financed the project: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry , Ministry of the Environment , Ministry of Transport and Communications , and Ministry of Finance . We also thank all the experts, who provided us valuable information on oil combating: Heli Haapasaari and Jouko Pirttijärvi (Finnish Environment Institute), Tuomas Martikainen (Finnish Transportation Agency) and Ville Estlander (Helsinki City Rescue Department). Olli-Pekka Brunila and Jenni Storgård (University of Turku) are thanked for providing the data on the oil types transported in the Gulf of Finland, and Jarno Vanhatalo (University of Helsinki) for helping with Fig. 3 . Appendix A

Keywords

  • Bayesian network
  • Cost-benefit analysis
  • Environmental valuation
  • Gulf of Finland
  • Maritime safety
  • Oil spill

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