A world model of the pulp and paper industry: Demand, energy consumption and emission scenarios to 2030

This article introduces a bottom-up global model of the pulp and paper sector (PULPSIM) with a focus on energy consumption and carbon emissions. It is an annual recursive simulation behavioural model with a 2030 time horizon incorporating several technological details of the industry for 47 world regions. The long time horizon and the modular structure allow the model users to assess the effects of different environmental, energy and climate policies in a scenario comparison setup. In addition to the business as usual developments of the sector, a climate commitment scenario has been analysed, in which the impacts of changing forest management practices are also included. The climate scenario results reveal that there is a significant carbon reduction potential in the pulp and paper making, showing a number of specific features: the central role of the fibrous resource inputs and the potential impact of increased waste wood and black liquor based heat generation.