Abstract
The wintertime accident risks of drivers and the factors affecting the
risks were analysed using statistical accident models. The evaluation method
was based on reliability theory and on survival modelling. The data consisted
of two parts: responses to a postal questionnaire, addressed to 10,000 vehicle
owners, about driving and accidents during wintertime in the years 1991-1993;
detailed records of fatal accidents, in the years 1987-1991, generated by
in-depth accident investigation teams and compiled by the Motor Insurers' Road
Safety Committee (VALT). Replies to the postal questionnaires were received
from 5,881 vehicle owners, giving a response rate of 59%. The replies included
296 self-reported accident involved drivers. The VALT data on fatal
wintertime accidents contained 658 drivers involved in fatal accidents. The
analyses of the two data sources confirmed that driving conditions and
kilometreage driven during the wintertime contribute to amount of accidents.
The best explaining variables in both survival and risk models of wintertime
driving were driver characteristics (age, driver behaviour, kilometreage
driven, speed, and use of safety-belt), drivers' state (driving under the
influence of alcohol) and vehicle characteristics (vehicle weight and
condition of tyres). Young and inexperienced on the one hand, or old (and
experienced) drivers, on the other hand, had the highest fatal accident risks.
There were no direct sex-related differences in accident risks between female
and male drivers. Drivers using non-studded winter tyres had a somewhat
greater accident risk than drivers using studded tyres, but the difference was
not statistically significant. Survival modelling with two distinct data
sources, a postal survey data and an in-depth accident data, were used in the
analysis. Modelling methods were also analysed by simulation and it was
concluded that survival modelling promises to be a useful tool for safety
analysis but the method needs further development.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Qualification | Doctor Degree |
| Awarding Institution |
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| Supervisors/Advisors |
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| Award date | 9 Dec 1999 |
| Place of Publication | Espoo |
| Publisher | |
| Print ISBNs | 951-38-5546-5 |
| Electronic ISBNs | 951-38-5547-3 |
| Publication status | Published - 1999 |
| MoE publication type | G4 Doctoral dissertation (monograph) |
Keywords
- winter traffic
- vehicular traffic
- cold environments
- automobiles
- drivers
- traffic accidents
- risk factors
- research, models
