TY - JOUR
T1 - Accident susceptibility index for a passenger ship-a framework and case study
AU - Montewka, Jakub
AU - Manderbacka, Teemu
AU - Ruponen, Pekka
AU - Tompuri, Markus
AU - Gil, Mateusz
AU - Hirdaris, Spyros
N1 - Funding Information:
The presented research has received funding from European Union project FLooding Accident REsponse (FLARE) number 814753, under H2020 programme. The authors express their gratitude for this support. The views set out in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of their respective organizations or of the FLARE consortium. Also, the computational resources provided by CSC – the Finnish IT Center for science is gratefully acknowledged. Finally, the comments of the anonymous reviewers are very much appreciated since they led to the improvement of the manuscript.
Funding Information:
The presented research has received funding from European Union project FLooding Accident REsponse (FLARE) number 814753, under H2020 programme. The authors express their gratitude for this support. The views set out in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of their respective organizations or of the FLARE consortium.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021
PY - 2022/2
Y1 - 2022/2
N2 - The continuous monitoring and assessment of operational vulnerability and accident susceptibility of passenger ships is crucial from the perspective of ship and passenger safety. Despite the existing solutions for vulnerability monitoring, stemming mainly from watertight door operations, a comprehensive framework for accident susceptibility assessment and monitoring is missing in the literature. Therefore, this paper offers a straightforward approach, utilizing heuristics rooted in the solid foundations of the first principles related to human performance. The proposed approach allows the evaluation of accident susceptibility of a ship in operation involved in open-sea and coastal navigation. The framework presented is based on observable and relevant factors, known to affect the navigator's performance, and as a consequence accident probability. The layout of the framework as well as the parameters of the developed model are based on literature survey in maritime and aviation domains, knowledge elicited from maritime experts and extensive simulations with the use of an in-house developed ship-ship encounter simulator. Subsequently, the model is applied to selected case studies, involving two distinctive ship types, namely a large cruise ship and a RoPax vessel. The results obtained for the case study presented in this paper reveal that most of their time the analyzed ships operate with negligible accident susceptibility (87%), while 1% of the cases are labelled as very high accident susceptibility. The remaining share of 12% is distributed among low, moderate and high values of accident susceptibility. The results are in line with earlier studies conducted in the same area but adopting different methods. The proposed solution can be applied as an onboard decision support tool, evaluating the operational accident susceptibility and vulnerability, thus increasing the crew's situational awareness. Additionally, it can be applied to historical data, allowing ship navigational safety diagnosis and implementation of appropriate countermeasures.
AB - The continuous monitoring and assessment of operational vulnerability and accident susceptibility of passenger ships is crucial from the perspective of ship and passenger safety. Despite the existing solutions for vulnerability monitoring, stemming mainly from watertight door operations, a comprehensive framework for accident susceptibility assessment and monitoring is missing in the literature. Therefore, this paper offers a straightforward approach, utilizing heuristics rooted in the solid foundations of the first principles related to human performance. The proposed approach allows the evaluation of accident susceptibility of a ship in operation involved in open-sea and coastal navigation. The framework presented is based on observable and relevant factors, known to affect the navigator's performance, and as a consequence accident probability. The layout of the framework as well as the parameters of the developed model are based on literature survey in maritime and aviation domains, knowledge elicited from maritime experts and extensive simulations with the use of an in-house developed ship-ship encounter simulator. Subsequently, the model is applied to selected case studies, involving two distinctive ship types, namely a large cruise ship and a RoPax vessel. The results obtained for the case study presented in this paper reveal that most of their time the analyzed ships operate with negligible accident susceptibility (87%), while 1% of the cases are labelled as very high accident susceptibility. The remaining share of 12% is distributed among low, moderate and high values of accident susceptibility. The results are in line with earlier studies conducted in the same area but adopting different methods. The proposed solution can be applied as an onboard decision support tool, evaluating the operational accident susceptibility and vulnerability, thus increasing the crew's situational awareness. Additionally, it can be applied to historical data, allowing ship navigational safety diagnosis and implementation of appropriate countermeasures.
KW - Accident susceptibility
KW - Human performance
KW - Human reliability
KW - Maritime risk and safety
KW - Safety of transportation
KW - Traffic complexity
KW - Waterways complexity
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85118512367&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2021.108145
DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2021.108145
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85118512367
SN - 0951-8320
VL - 218
JO - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
JF - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
M1 - 108145
ER -