Accommodating variability in generation planning

A. Shortt, Juha Kiviluoma, M. O'Malley

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    50 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Many of the most commonly used generation planning models have been formulated in a way that neglects the chronological sequence of demand and the mixed-integer nature of generating units. The generator schedules assumed by these models are inaccurate and become increasingly divorced from real schedules with increasing variability. This paper seeks to characterize and quantify the limitations of these models over a broad set of input parameters. For an illustrative set of test systems, wind capacities and generator types, annual system costs are determined for all combinations of generating units using a unit-commitment model, which captures the chronological behavior of units and a dispatch model which does not. It is seen that the relative performance of the dispatch model is highly system specific but generally degrades with increasing variability. The difference in cost estimates between the models is decomposed into start costs, starts avoidance and average cost estimation error. The impact on least-cost portfolios is shown and finally sensitivities are performed with the addition of hydro and nuclear power to assess their impact.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)158-169
    Number of pages12
    JournalIEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy
    Volume28
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2013
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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    Planning
    Costs
    Nuclear energy
    Error analysis

    Keywords

    • Power generation planning
    • wind power generation

    Cite this

    Shortt, A. ; Kiviluoma, Juha ; O'Malley, M. / Accommodating variability in generation planning. In: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy. 2013 ; Vol. 28, No. 1. pp. 158-169.
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    Accommodating variability in generation planning. / Shortt, A.; Kiviluoma, Juha; O'Malley, M.

    In: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, Vol. 28, No. 1, 2013, p. 158-169.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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    AU - Kiviluoma, Juha

    AU - O'Malley, M.

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    AB - Many of the most commonly used generation planning models have been formulated in a way that neglects the chronological sequence of demand and the mixed-integer nature of generating units. The generator schedules assumed by these models are inaccurate and become increasingly divorced from real schedules with increasing variability. This paper seeks to characterize and quantify the limitations of these models over a broad set of input parameters. For an illustrative set of test systems, wind capacities and generator types, annual system costs are determined for all combinations of generating units using a unit-commitment model, which captures the chronological behavior of units and a dispatch model which does not. It is seen that the relative performance of the dispatch model is highly system specific but generally degrades with increasing variability. The difference in cost estimates between the models is decomposed into start costs, starts avoidance and average cost estimation error. The impact on least-cost portfolios is shown and finally sensitivities are performed with the addition of hydro and nuclear power to assess their impact.

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