An analysis of countries' climate change mitigation contributions towards the Paris agreement

Tommi Ekholm, Tomi J. Lindroos

    Research output: Book/ReportReport

    Abstract

    142 "Intended, Nationally Determined Contributions" (INDCs) have been submitted to the United Nations' climate treaty (UNFCCC) towards the forthcoming Paris negotiations. In the INDCs, parties state their intended contribution for mitigating climate change in the coming decade. However, the content of the INDCs varies considerably between parties, making it difficult to estimate and compare the level of ambition by the parties, or the emission level implied by the INDCs. A critical question is whether the INDCs are collectively ambitious enough to keep the 2°C target within reach. This research o provides country-level estimates on the emissions implied by 53 INDC's, o compares the countries' contributions between each other, o presents temperature projections based on the INDCs and two post-2030 emission pathways, and o analyses 12 highest-emitting parties' INDCs in depth. The emission levels around 2030 implied by 53 INDCs were compared to each other under the "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities" principle. Most developed countries target significant emission reductions from the current level. For developing countries the level of ambition is very dispersed: while some target a stabilisation of emissions by 2030, some project more than 200% increase from 2010 level. Additionally, the mitigation effort is not quantifiable from many INDCs, e.g. because the Business-as-Usual scenario from which the reduction target is defined was not given in the INDC. Collectively, the INDCs would bring an emission reduction between 4 and 8 Gt CO2 eq from the reference scenario in 2030, with strong contribution from both developed and developing countries; and the global emissions would be between 50 and 54 Gt CO2 eq. An analysis of post-2030 emission pathways showed that this emission level is compatible with the 2°C target only if steep emission reductions are undertaken after 2030. Increasing the level of ambition of 2030 is a key priority to improve the changes of keeping global mean temperature increase below 2°C.
    Original languageEnglish
    PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
    Number of pages53
    ISBN (Electronic)978-951-38-8378-2
    Publication statusPublished - 2015
    MoE publication typeNot Eligible

    Publication series

    SeriesVTT Technology
    Number239
    ISSN2242-1211

    Fingerprint

    developing world
    United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
    analysis
    climate change mitigation
    United Nations
    stabilization
    mitigation
    temperature
    climate change
    climate
    emission reduction
    developed country
    treaty
    responsibility
    project

    Keywords

    • climate change
    • UNFCCC
    • INDC
    • greenhouse gas
    • scenario

    Cite this

    Ekholm, T., & Lindroos, T. J. (2015). An analysis of countries' climate change mitigation contributions towards the Paris agreement. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT Technology, No. 239
    Ekholm, Tommi ; Lindroos, Tomi J. / An analysis of countries' climate change mitigation contributions towards the Paris agreement. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2015. 53 p. (VTT Technology; No. 239).
    @book{fa43eee5c93d449d97108028f6b4a529,
    title = "An analysis of countries' climate change mitigation contributions towards the Paris agreement",
    abstract = "142 {"}Intended, Nationally Determined Contributions{"} (INDCs) have been submitted to the United Nations' climate treaty (UNFCCC) towards the forthcoming Paris negotiations. In the INDCs, parties state their intended contribution for mitigating climate change in the coming decade. However, the content of the INDCs varies considerably between parties, making it difficult to estimate and compare the level of ambition by the parties, or the emission level implied by the INDCs. A critical question is whether the INDCs are collectively ambitious enough to keep the 2°C target within reach. This research o provides country-level estimates on the emissions implied by 53 INDC's, o compares the countries' contributions between each other, o presents temperature projections based on the INDCs and two post-2030 emission pathways, and o analyses 12 highest-emitting parties' INDCs in depth. The emission levels around 2030 implied by 53 INDCs were compared to each other under the {"}common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities{"} principle. Most developed countries target significant emission reductions from the current level. For developing countries the level of ambition is very dispersed: while some target a stabilisation of emissions by 2030, some project more than 200{\%} increase from 2010 level. Additionally, the mitigation effort is not quantifiable from many INDCs, e.g. because the Business-as-Usual scenario from which the reduction target is defined was not given in the INDC. Collectively, the INDCs would bring an emission reduction between 4 and 8 Gt CO2 eq from the reference scenario in 2030, with strong contribution from both developed and developing countries; and the global emissions would be between 50 and 54 Gt CO2 eq. An analysis of post-2030 emission pathways showed that this emission level is compatible with the 2°C target only if steep emission reductions are undertaken after 2030. Increasing the level of ambition of 2030 is a key priority to improve the changes of keeping global mean temperature increase below 2°C.",
    keywords = "climate change, UNFCCC, INDC, greenhouse gas, scenario",
    author = "Tommi Ekholm and Lindroos, {Tomi J.}",
    year = "2015",
    language = "English",
    series = "VTT Technology",
    publisher = "VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland",
    number = "239",
    address = "Finland",

    }

    Ekholm, T & Lindroos, TJ 2015, An analysis of countries' climate change mitigation contributions towards the Paris agreement. VTT Technology, no. 239, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.

    An analysis of countries' climate change mitigation contributions towards the Paris agreement. / Ekholm, Tommi; Lindroos, Tomi J.

    VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2015. 53 p. (VTT Technology; No. 239).

    Research output: Book/ReportReport

    TY - BOOK

    T1 - An analysis of countries' climate change mitigation contributions towards the Paris agreement

    AU - Ekholm, Tommi

    AU - Lindroos, Tomi J.

    PY - 2015

    Y1 - 2015

    N2 - 142 "Intended, Nationally Determined Contributions" (INDCs) have been submitted to the United Nations' climate treaty (UNFCCC) towards the forthcoming Paris negotiations. In the INDCs, parties state their intended contribution for mitigating climate change in the coming decade. However, the content of the INDCs varies considerably between parties, making it difficult to estimate and compare the level of ambition by the parties, or the emission level implied by the INDCs. A critical question is whether the INDCs are collectively ambitious enough to keep the 2°C target within reach. This research o provides country-level estimates on the emissions implied by 53 INDC's, o compares the countries' contributions between each other, o presents temperature projections based on the INDCs and two post-2030 emission pathways, and o analyses 12 highest-emitting parties' INDCs in depth. The emission levels around 2030 implied by 53 INDCs were compared to each other under the "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities" principle. Most developed countries target significant emission reductions from the current level. For developing countries the level of ambition is very dispersed: while some target a stabilisation of emissions by 2030, some project more than 200% increase from 2010 level. Additionally, the mitigation effort is not quantifiable from many INDCs, e.g. because the Business-as-Usual scenario from which the reduction target is defined was not given in the INDC. Collectively, the INDCs would bring an emission reduction between 4 and 8 Gt CO2 eq from the reference scenario in 2030, with strong contribution from both developed and developing countries; and the global emissions would be between 50 and 54 Gt CO2 eq. An analysis of post-2030 emission pathways showed that this emission level is compatible with the 2°C target only if steep emission reductions are undertaken after 2030. Increasing the level of ambition of 2030 is a key priority to improve the changes of keeping global mean temperature increase below 2°C.

    AB - 142 "Intended, Nationally Determined Contributions" (INDCs) have been submitted to the United Nations' climate treaty (UNFCCC) towards the forthcoming Paris negotiations. In the INDCs, parties state their intended contribution for mitigating climate change in the coming decade. However, the content of the INDCs varies considerably between parties, making it difficult to estimate and compare the level of ambition by the parties, or the emission level implied by the INDCs. A critical question is whether the INDCs are collectively ambitious enough to keep the 2°C target within reach. This research o provides country-level estimates on the emissions implied by 53 INDC's, o compares the countries' contributions between each other, o presents temperature projections based on the INDCs and two post-2030 emission pathways, and o analyses 12 highest-emitting parties' INDCs in depth. The emission levels around 2030 implied by 53 INDCs were compared to each other under the "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities" principle. Most developed countries target significant emission reductions from the current level. For developing countries the level of ambition is very dispersed: while some target a stabilisation of emissions by 2030, some project more than 200% increase from 2010 level. Additionally, the mitigation effort is not quantifiable from many INDCs, e.g. because the Business-as-Usual scenario from which the reduction target is defined was not given in the INDC. Collectively, the INDCs would bring an emission reduction between 4 and 8 Gt CO2 eq from the reference scenario in 2030, with strong contribution from both developed and developing countries; and the global emissions would be between 50 and 54 Gt CO2 eq. An analysis of post-2030 emission pathways showed that this emission level is compatible with the 2°C target only if steep emission reductions are undertaken after 2030. Increasing the level of ambition of 2030 is a key priority to improve the changes of keeping global mean temperature increase below 2°C.

    KW - climate change

    KW - UNFCCC

    KW - INDC

    KW - greenhouse gas

    KW - scenario

    M3 - Report

    T3 - VTT Technology

    BT - An analysis of countries' climate change mitigation contributions towards the Paris agreement

    PB - VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

    ER -

    Ekholm T, Lindroos TJ. An analysis of countries' climate change mitigation contributions towards the Paris agreement. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2015. 53 p. (VTT Technology; No. 239).