142 "Intended, Nationally Determined Contributions"
(INDCs) have been submitted to the United Nations'
climate treaty (UNFCCC) towards the forthcoming Paris
negotiations. In the INDCs, parties state their intended
contribution for mitigating climate change in the coming
decade. However, the content of the INDCs varies
considerably between parties, making it difficult to
estimate and compare the level of ambition by the
parties, or the emission level implied by the INDCs. A
critical question is whether the INDCs are collectively
ambitious enough to keep the 2°C target within reach.
o provides country-level estimates on the emissions
implied by 53 INDC's,
o compares the countries' contributions between each
o presents temperature projections based on the INDCs and
emission pathways, and
o analyses 12 highest-emitting parties' INDCs in depth.
The emission levels around 2030 implied by 53 INDCs were
compared to each other under the "common but
differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities" principle. Most developed countries target
significant emission reductions from the current level.
For developing countries the level of ambition is very
dispersed: while some target a stabilisation of emissions
by 2030, some project more than 200% increase from 2010
level. Additionally, the mitigation effort is not
quantifiable from many INDCs, e.g. because the
Business-as-Usual scenario from which the reduction
target is defined was not given in the INDC.
Collectively, the INDCs would bring an emission reduction
between 4 and 8 Gt CO2 eq from the reference scenario in
2030, with strong contribution from both developed and
developing countries; and the global emissions would be
between 50 and 54 Gt CO2 eq. An analysis of post-2030
emission pathways showed that this emission level is
compatible with the 2°C target only if steep emission
reductions are undertaken after 2030. Increasing the
level of ambition of 2030 is a key priority to improve
the changes of keeping global mean temperature increase
- climate change
- greenhouse gas