An improved method of extreme value analysis

Lasse Makkonen (Corresponding Author), Maria Tikanmäki

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)


An improved method to estimate the probability of extreme events from independent observations is presented. The method, called VWLS, is based on minimizing the variance of order-ranked observations plotted according to their true probability and applying the least squares fitting. We show by Monte-Carlo simulations that this method provides estimates for the extremes that are considerably better than obtained by presently available EVA methods, particularly for small data sets. An additional benefit of VWLS is that its application requires no subjective methodological decisions by the user.
Original languageEnglish
Article number100012
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Hydrology X
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2019
MoE publication typeNot Eligible


  • extremes
  • extreme value analysis
  • statistical inference
  • flood frequency analysis

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