Analysis and Evaluation of Triptych 6: Case Finland

The post-2012 global climate policy framework is being discussed in various fora. The Finnish Ministry of the Environment has commissioned several studies on various elements of the future climate framework with a view to both preparing for the international fora and informing the national discourse. This report covers the second phase of a two-phase study, which focuses on the perspectives for long-term emission reduction pathways and the possible implications for long-term reduction targets by country or by groups of countries. The objective of this 2nd phase of the study was to improve the understanding of more complex approaches, such as Triptych and Multistage in their computational context, and moreover as operationalized by Ecofys in 'the Evolution of commitments' tool (EVOC). Critical input data, parameters and assumptions of the global Triptych approach, notably those relevant for Finland, were identified. The sensitivity of the approach was then tested by varying the values for those critical data and parameters in test runs carried out by Ecofys. The results of the test runs were analysed by Ecofys and reviewed by VTT and VATT. Furthermore, VTT and VATT made an overall assessment, including conceptual considerations, of the applicability of the Triptych approach for burden sharing in long-term emission reductions. The implemented sensitivity calculations of the Triptych 6 system indicated a variation of less than 10 percentage points from original runs carried out in the 1st phase of the study. Most of the test runs resulted in decrease, whereas only a few test runs led to increase, of emission allowances of Finland. The impact was stronger in 2020 than in 2050. However, the test runs were restricted by the methodology that was not much modified. More significant variations could have been caused by implementing methodological changes. As regards the review of the model VTT and VATT identified the following critical methodological features of the Triptych 6 system: the chosen representation of CHP in the model the sensitivity of base year selection with regard to fuel mix and growth of electricity production the lack of distinction between energy-intensive and other manufacturing industry per-capita-based emission indicators as sole drivers for handling the domestic sector the pre-fixation of all key-drivers (such as growth of GDP and electricity demand) and subsequent adaptation of some key parameters to facilitate target achievement without any recourse to relative cost