Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison

Jie Zhang, Bri-Mathias Hodge, Jari J. Miettinen, Hannele Holttinen, Emilio Gómez-Lázaro, Nicolaos Cutululis, Marisciel Litong-Palima, Poul Sørensen, Anne Line Lovholm, Erik Berge, Jan Dobschinski

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientific

    Abstract

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW2013
    Place of PublicationDarmstadt
    PublisherEnergynautics GmbH
    Number of pages7
    ISBN (Print)978-3-9813870-7-0
    Publication statusPublished - 2013
    MoE publication typeB3 Non-refereed article in conference proceedings
    Event12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW13 - London, United Kingdom
    Duration: 22 Oct 201324 Oct 2013
    Conference number: 12

    Conference

    Conference12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW13
    Abbreviated titleWIW13
    CountryUnited Kingdom
    CityLondon
    Period22/10/1324/10/13

    Keywords

    • Wind forecasting
    • reliability
    • power systems
    • uncertainty
    • variability

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  • Cite this

    Zhang, J., Hodge, B-M., Miettinen, J. J., Holttinen, H., Gómez-Lázaro, E., Cutululis, N., Litong-Palima, M., Sørensen, P., Lovholm, A. L., Berge, E., & Dobschinski, J. (2013). Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison. In Proceedings of 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW2013 Energynautics GmbH. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/60228.pdf