Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison

Jie Zhang, Bri-Mathias Hodge, Jari J. Miettinen, Hannele Holttinen, Emilio Gómez-Lázaro, Nicolaos Cutululis, Marisciel Litong-Palima, Poul Sørensen, Anne Line Lovholm, Erik Berge, Jan Dobschinski

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientific

    Abstract

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW2013
    Place of PublicationDarmstadt
    PublisherEnergynautics GmbH
    Number of pages7
    ISBN (Print)978-3-9813870-7-0
    Publication statusPublished - 2013
    MoE publication typeB3 Non-refereed article in conference proceedings
    Event12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW13 - London, United Kingdom
    Duration: 22 Oct 201324 Oct 2013
    Conference number: 12

    Conference

    Conference12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW13
    Abbreviated titleWIW13
    CountryUnited Kingdom
    CityLondon
    Period22/10/1324/10/13

    Fingerprint

    international comparison
    wind power
    forecast
    analysis
    winter
    estimation method
    power generation

    Keywords

    • Wind forecasting
    • reliability
    • power systems
    • uncertainty
    • variability

    Cite this

    Zhang, J., Hodge, B-M., Miettinen, J. J., Holttinen, H., Gómez-Lázaro, E., Cutululis, N., ... Dobschinski, J. (2013). Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison. In Proceedings of 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW2013 Darmstadt: Energynautics GmbH.
    Zhang, Jie ; Hodge, Bri-Mathias ; Miettinen, Jari J. ; Holttinen, Hannele ; Gómez-Lázaro, Emilio ; Cutululis, Nicolaos ; Litong-Palima, Marisciel ; Sørensen, Poul ; Lovholm, Anne Line ; Berge, Erik ; Dobschinski, Jan. / Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting : An International Comparison. Proceedings of 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW2013. Darmstadt : Energynautics GmbH, 2013.
    @inproceedings{81d47ac8bc2b4c1aab337d9206baa2fd,
    title = "Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison",
    abstract = "One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer",
    keywords = "Wind forecasting, reliability, power systems, uncertainty, variability",
    author = "Jie Zhang and Bri-Mathias Hodge and Miettinen, {Jari J.} and Hannele Holttinen and Emilio G{\'o}mez-L{\'a}zaro and Nicolaos Cutululis and Marisciel Litong-Palima and Poul S{\o}rensen and Lovholm, {Anne Line} and Erik Berge and Jan Dobschinski",
    note = "Project code: 78560 1.6",
    year = "2013",
    language = "English",
    isbn = "978-3-9813870-7-0",
    booktitle = "Proceedings of 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW2013",
    publisher = "Energynautics GmbH",
    address = "Germany",

    }

    Zhang, J, Hodge, B-M, Miettinen, JJ, Holttinen, H, Gómez-Lázaro, E, Cutululis, N, Litong-Palima, M, Sørensen, P, Lovholm, AL, Berge, E & Dobschinski, J 2013, Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison. in Proceedings of 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW2013. Energynautics GmbH, Darmstadt, 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW13, London, United Kingdom, 22/10/13.

    Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting : An International Comparison. / Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Miettinen, Jari J.; Holttinen, Hannele; Gómez-Lázaro, Emilio; Cutululis, Nicolaos; Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Sørensen, Poul; Lovholm, Anne Line; Berge, Erik; Dobschinski, Jan.

    Proceedings of 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW2013. Darmstadt : Energynautics GmbH, 2013.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientific

    TY - GEN

    T1 - Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting

    T2 - An International Comparison

    AU - Zhang, Jie

    AU - Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    AU - Miettinen, Jari J.

    AU - Holttinen, Hannele

    AU - Gómez-Lázaro, Emilio

    AU - Cutululis, Nicolaos

    AU - Litong-Palima, Marisciel

    AU - Sørensen, Poul

    AU - Lovholm, Anne Line

    AU - Berge, Erik

    AU - Dobschinski, Jan

    N1 - Project code: 78560 1.6

    PY - 2013

    Y1 - 2013

    N2 - One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer

    AB - One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer

    KW - Wind forecasting

    KW - reliability

    KW - power systems

    KW - uncertainty

    KW - variability

    M3 - Conference article in proceedings

    SN - 978-3-9813870-7-0

    BT - Proceedings of 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW2013

    PB - Energynautics GmbH

    CY - Darmstadt

    ER -

    Zhang J, Hodge B-M, Miettinen JJ, Holttinen H, Gómez-Lázaro E, Cutululis N et al. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison. In Proceedings of 12th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, WIW2013. Darmstadt: Energynautics GmbH. 2013