Analyzing Risk in Digitalized Border Management Systems: The State of Play

Novel digital infrastructures and other enhanced ICT tools, such as biometrics-enabled e-gates, advanced analytics and predictive modelling transform European border management with increasing intensity. Advanced technologies are claimed to offer border agencies new means to address evolving security threats and growing volumes in trade and travel. However, their development, deployment and application can also contribute to the build-up of new vulnerabilities whose identification may require a change in the approach they are currently being assessed. Present methods of document fraud for example involve high use of advanced technologies, such as 3D printing; and alterations in genuine travel documents or the manufacturing of complete counterfeits may be difficult to detect particularly in automated processes and thus create a serious, unanticipated capability-based system vulnerability. By reviewing current approaches and used analysis methods, this paper discusses the implications for addressing risk in security critical context, where the risks are yet to become known but have most likely already happened.