Applying IDPSA in PSA level 3 - a pilot study

    Research output: Book/ReportReport

    Abstract

    This report is a pilot study of applying deterministic and probabilistic methods in level 3 probabilistic safety analysis (PSA). On the deterministic side, VTT's consequence analysis code ARANO is used in calculating the atmospheric dispersion of a release of radioactive substances, and in estimating the total dose of ionizing radiation. On the probabilistic side, VTT's level 2 PSA code SPSA is used to assess the probabilities of different consequences. The main model is an event tree, where each branch concerns either the value of a weather variable (wind direction, wind speed, precipitation) or a countermeasure variable (evacuation success, sheltering success). The case considered is an alternative take on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. The setup is as follows: the population of the major cities close to the site are in place (and not killed by or evacuated after the earthquake and tsunami), and the impact of weather is analysed on the basis of what it statistically is in March in that part of Japan. What radiological consequences (in terms of population dose and cancer deaths) would the radioactive release from the site have had under these presuppositions? The population doses are analysed in the event tree, and uncertainty analyses are conducted on the weather variables, evacuation and sheltering success probabilities, and the effectiveness of sheltering. We find that, even under rather conservative assumptions, the radiological consequences are small. However, the results should be seen as only indicative due to simplifications made in modelling. The pilot study demonstrates that the approach used is a viable way of conducting level 3 analyses.
    Original languageEnglish
    PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
    Number of pages23
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    MoE publication typeD4 Published development or research report or study

    Publication series

    SeriesVTT Research Report
    VolumeVTT-R-05661-14

    Fingerprint

    weather
    nuclear power plant
    tsunami
    wind direction
    accident
    cancer
    wind velocity
    earthquake
    modeling
    safety analysis
    dose
    code
    city
    ionising radiation
    method
    radioactive substance
    analysis

    Keywords

    • probabilistic safety analysis
    • consequence analysis

    Cite this

    Karanta, I., Tyrväinen, T., & Rossi, J. (2014). Applying IDPSA in PSA level 3 - a pilot study. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT Research Report, Vol.. VTT-R-05661-14
    Karanta, Ilkka ; Tyrväinen, Tero ; Rossi, Jukka. / Applying IDPSA in PSA level 3 - a pilot study. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2014. 23 p. (VTT Research Report, Vol. VTT-R-05661-14).
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    abstract = "This report is a pilot study of applying deterministic and probabilistic methods in level 3 probabilistic safety analysis (PSA). On the deterministic side, VTT's consequence analysis code ARANO is used in calculating the atmospheric dispersion of a release of radioactive substances, and in estimating the total dose of ionizing radiation. On the probabilistic side, VTT's level 2 PSA code SPSA is used to assess the probabilities of different consequences. The main model is an event tree, where each branch concerns either the value of a weather variable (wind direction, wind speed, precipitation) or a countermeasure variable (evacuation success, sheltering success). The case considered is an alternative take on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. The setup is as follows: the population of the major cities close to the site are in place (and not killed by or evacuated after the earthquake and tsunami), and the impact of weather is analysed on the basis of what it statistically is in March in that part of Japan. What radiological consequences (in terms of population dose and cancer deaths) would the radioactive release from the site have had under these presuppositions? The population doses are analysed in the event tree, and uncertainty analyses are conducted on the weather variables, evacuation and sheltering success probabilities, and the effectiveness of sheltering. We find that, even under rather conservative assumptions, the radiological consequences are small. However, the results should be seen as only indicative due to simplifications made in modelling. The pilot study demonstrates that the approach used is a viable way of conducting level 3 analyses.",
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    Karanta, I, Tyrväinen, T & Rossi, J 2014, Applying IDPSA in PSA level 3 - a pilot study. VTT Research Report, vol. VTT-R-05661-14, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.

    Applying IDPSA in PSA level 3 - a pilot study. / Karanta, Ilkka; Tyrväinen, Tero; Rossi, Jukka.

    VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2014. 23 p. (VTT Research Report, Vol. VTT-R-05661-14).

    Research output: Book/ReportReport

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    Karanta I, Tyrväinen T, Rossi J. Applying IDPSA in PSA level 3 - a pilot study. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2014. 23 p. (VTT Research Report, Vol. VTT-R-05661-14).