Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios

Tommi Ekholm, Sampo Soimakallio, Niklas Höhne, Sara Moltmann, Sanna Syri

Research output: Book/ReportReport

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

To reinforce the long-term commitment to climate change mitigation, the post-2012 climate policy framework is aimed to be completed by 2009. The new agreement needs to include a wider participation of parties, and therefore needs to address the effort sharing of countries. The mitigation capabilities and the responsibilities of countries do however vary significantly. This can, in principle, be overcome with a cap-and-trade system, with which the question of equity is addressed trough the allocation of emission allowances. A number of effort sharing schemes have been proposed. Effort sharing however suffers from a fundamental trade-off between detail and transparency on how the emission allocations are calculated. This study addresses this problem by comparing and combining the results from a transparent but simplified effort sharing model EVOC, and a detailed and - due to its complexity - seemingly non-transparent ETSAP-TIAM energy system model. The aim of the study is to evaluate the goodness of the initial effort sharing, particularly in terms of mitigation costs experienced by different regions in the scenarios. Based on the long-term energy-climate scenarios crafted with the TIAM model, we assess the resulting consequences in emission profiles and the energy system, concentrating especially on regional mitigation costs and emission trading. Two cases of market failures in emission trading are also considered. Finally we compare the mitigation potentials between the two models and estimate the effect of EVOC recalibration on the national emission allowances. The results of the study underline particularly the importance of detailed and reliable assumptions for the mitigation potentials of different countries in the effort sharing process.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationEspoo
PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Number of pages83
ISBN (Electronic)978-951-38-7245-8
ISBN (Print)978-951-38-7244-1
Publication statusPublished - 2008
MoE publication typeNot Eligible

Publication series

SeriesVTT Tiedotteita - Meddelanden - Research Notes
Number2453
ISSN1235-0605

Fingerprint

global climate
greenhouse gas
mitigation
emissions trading
energy
cost
transparency
equity
environmental policy
trade-off
trough
emission reduction
market
climate
allocation
allowance

Keywords

  • climate change
  • mitigation
  • effort sharing
  • scenarios
  • EVOC
  • TIMES

Cite this

Ekholm, T., Soimakallio, S., Höhne, N., Moltmann, S., & Syri, S. (2008). Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios. Espoo: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT Tiedotteita - Meddelanden - Research Notes, No. 2453
Ekholm, Tommi ; Soimakallio, Sampo ; Höhne, Niklas ; Moltmann, Sara ; Syri, Sanna. / Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios. Espoo : VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2008. 83 p. (VTT Tiedotteita - Meddelanden - Research Notes; No. 2453).
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Ekholm, T, Soimakallio, S, Höhne, N, Moltmann, S & Syri, S 2008, Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios. VTT Tiedotteita - Meddelanden - Research Notes, no. 2453, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo.

Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios. / Ekholm, Tommi; Soimakallio, Sampo; Höhne, Niklas; Moltmann, Sara; Syri, Sanna.

Espoo : VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2008. 83 p. (VTT Tiedotteita - Meddelanden - Research Notes; No. 2453).

Research output: Book/ReportReport

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AB - To reinforce the long-term commitment to climate change mitigation, the post-2012 climate policy framework is aimed to be completed by 2009. The new agreement needs to include a wider participation of parties, and therefore needs to address the effort sharing of countries. The mitigation capabilities and the responsibilities of countries do however vary significantly. This can, in principle, be overcome with a cap-and-trade system, with which the question of equity is addressed trough the allocation of emission allowances. A number of effort sharing schemes have been proposed. Effort sharing however suffers from a fundamental trade-off between detail and transparency on how the emission allocations are calculated. This study addresses this problem by comparing and combining the results from a transparent but simplified effort sharing model EVOC, and a detailed and - due to its complexity - seemingly non-transparent ETSAP-TIAM energy system model. The aim of the study is to evaluate the goodness of the initial effort sharing, particularly in terms of mitigation costs experienced by different regions in the scenarios. Based on the long-term energy-climate scenarios crafted with the TIAM model, we assess the resulting consequences in emission profiles and the energy system, concentrating especially on regional mitigation costs and emission trading. Two cases of market failures in emission trading are also considered. Finally we compare the mitigation potentials between the two models and estimate the effect of EVOC recalibration on the national emission allowances. The results of the study underline particularly the importance of detailed and reliable assumptions for the mitigation potentials of different countries in the effort sharing process.

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KW - TIMES

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BT - Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios

PB - VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

CY - Espoo

ER -

Ekholm T, Soimakallio S, Höhne N, Moltmann S, Syri S. Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios. Espoo: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2008. 83 p. (VTT Tiedotteita - Meddelanden - Research Notes; No. 2453).