Abstract
Ambitious climate change mitigation requires the
implementation of effective and equitable climate policy
and GHG emission reduction measures. The objective of
this study was to explore the significance of the
uncertainties related to GHG emission reduction measures
and policies by providing viewpoints on biofuels
production, grid electricity consumption and
differentiation of emission reduction commitments between
countries and country groups. Life cycle assessment (LCA)
and macro-level scenario analysis through top-down and
bottom-up modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA)
were used as methods. The uncertainties were propagated
in a statistical way through parameter variation,
scenario analysis and stochastic modelling.
This study showed that, in determining GHG emissions at
product or process level, there are significant
uncertainties due to parameters such as nitrous oxide
emissions from soil, soil carbon changes and emissions
from electricity production; and due to methodological
choices related to the spatial and temporal system
boundary setting and selection of allocation methods.
Furthermore, the uncertainties due to modelling may be of
central importance. For example, when accounting for
biomass-based carbon emissions to and sequestration from
the atmosphere, consideration of the temporal dimension
is critical. The outcomes in differentiation of GHG
emission reduction commitments between countries and
country groups are critically influenced by the quality
of data and criteria applied. In both LCA and effort
sharing, the major issues are equitable attribution of
emissions and emission allowances on the one hand and
capturing consequences of measures and policies on the
other. As LCA and system level top-down and bottom-up
modelling results are increasingly used to justify
various decisions by different stakeholders such as
policy-makers and consumers, harmonization of practices,
transparency and the handling of uncertainties related to
methodological choices, parameters and modelling must be
improved in order to avoid conscious misuse and
unintentional misunderstanding.
Original language | English |
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Qualification | Doctor Degree |
Awarding Institution |
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Supervisors/Advisors |
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Award date | 31 Aug 2012 |
Place of Publication | Espoo |
Publisher | |
Print ISBNs | 978-951-38-7469-8 |
Electronic ISBNs | 978-951-38-7470-4 |
Publication status | Published - 2012 |
MoE publication type | G5 Doctoral dissertation (article) |
Keywords
- Greenhouse gas emission
- Biofuel
- Electricity
- effort sharing
- uncertainty