Assessment of carbon emissions quotas with the integrated times and MERGE model

Socrates Kypreos, Antti Lehtilä

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter or book articleProfessional

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The success of climate change mitigation depends on the modalities for the extension of the Kyoto protocol after 2020. This refers to the appropriate level of GHG reduction imposed as emissions quotas in line with the 2 °C commitment. We perform a parametric analysis where increasingly stringent cumulative and global emission quota bounds are applied using the integrated TIMES and MERGE model (ITMM). The model integrates in one set of equations two hybrid top-down and bottom-up models both able to analyze technological change. The study assumes efficient policies and measures where all world regions accept a binding protocol in 2020 while mitigation policies will start already in 2015. However, this early introduction of efficient policies needs capital transfers for a fair burden sharing in favor of countries with low income and in that sense the model assumptions are critical. Marginal cost of carbon control of these optimistic policies are high (600–1000 $/t of carbon by 2050) but global GDP losses remain moderate and below 1.5 % per year.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationInforming Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models
    PublisherSpringer
    Pages111-124
    ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-16540-0
    ISBN (Print)978-3-319-16539-4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2015
    MoE publication typeD2 Article in professional manuals or guides or professional information systems or text book material

    Publication series

    SeriesLecture Notes in Energy
    Volume30

    Fingerprint

    carbon emission
    Kyoto Protocol
    technological change
    carbon
    Gross Domestic Product
    mitigation
    income
    policy
    cost

    Cite this

    Kypreos, S., & Lehtilä, A. (2015). Assessment of carbon emissions quotas with the integrated times and MERGE model. In Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models (pp. 111-124). Springer. Lecture Notes in Energy, Vol.. 30 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0_6
    Kypreos, Socrates ; Lehtilä, Antti. / Assessment of carbon emissions quotas with the integrated times and MERGE model. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. Springer, 2015. pp. 111-124 (Lecture Notes in Energy, Vol. 30).
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    Kypreos, S & Lehtilä, A 2015, Assessment of carbon emissions quotas with the integrated times and MERGE model. in Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. Springer, Lecture Notes in Energy, vol. 30, pp. 111-124. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0_6

    Assessment of carbon emissions quotas with the integrated times and MERGE model. / Kypreos, Socrates; Lehtilä, Antti.

    Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. Springer, 2015. p. 111-124 (Lecture Notes in Energy, Vol. 30).

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter or book articleProfessional

    TY - CHAP

    T1 - Assessment of carbon emissions quotas with the integrated times and MERGE model

    AU - Kypreos, Socrates

    AU - Lehtilä, Antti

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    N2 - The success of climate change mitigation depends on the modalities for the extension of the Kyoto protocol after 2020. This refers to the appropriate level of GHG reduction imposed as emissions quotas in line with the 2 °C commitment. We perform a parametric analysis where increasingly stringent cumulative and global emission quota bounds are applied using the integrated TIMES and MERGE model (ITMM). The model integrates in one set of equations two hybrid top-down and bottom-up models both able to analyze technological change. The study assumes efficient policies and measures where all world regions accept a binding protocol in 2020 while mitigation policies will start already in 2015. However, this early introduction of efficient policies needs capital transfers for a fair burden sharing in favor of countries with low income and in that sense the model assumptions are critical. Marginal cost of carbon control of these optimistic policies are high (600–1000 $/t of carbon by 2050) but global GDP losses remain moderate and below 1.5 % per year.

    AB - The success of climate change mitigation depends on the modalities for the extension of the Kyoto protocol after 2020. This refers to the appropriate level of GHG reduction imposed as emissions quotas in line with the 2 °C commitment. We perform a parametric analysis where increasingly stringent cumulative and global emission quota bounds are applied using the integrated TIMES and MERGE model (ITMM). The model integrates in one set of equations two hybrid top-down and bottom-up models both able to analyze technological change. The study assumes efficient policies and measures where all world regions accept a binding protocol in 2020 while mitigation policies will start already in 2015. However, this early introduction of efficient policies needs capital transfers for a fair burden sharing in favor of countries with low income and in that sense the model assumptions are critical. Marginal cost of carbon control of these optimistic policies are high (600–1000 $/t of carbon by 2050) but global GDP losses remain moderate and below 1.5 % per year.

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    SN - 978-3-319-16539-4

    T3 - Lecture Notes in Energy

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    Kypreos S, Lehtilä A. Assessment of carbon emissions quotas with the integrated times and MERGE model. In Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. Springer. 2015. p. 111-124. (Lecture Notes in Energy, Vol. 30). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0_6