Avoiding technological risks: The dilemma of complexity

Complex technological systems have been shown to carry the potential of accidents and other unwanted effects. Risk analysis has been developed as a methodology for assessing risks, but there are several difficulties in applying the methodology to low-probability, high-consequence events. The complexity of the systems makes it increasingly difficult to predict their behavior at the same time such predictions become more important. The complexity is not only due to the technical system, but also due to a similar complexity in its control structures. The complexity of the systems makes it increasingly likely that persistent risk pathogens are buried in their control structures. Such complexity can only be approached by applying multiple perspectives and many different views within these perspectives. The safety of emerging technologies should be possible to ensure with a combined approach of feedforward and feedback control, where an early assessment of possible unintended consequences is continuously updated when new operational experience is acquired. This does not, however, change the fact that the complexity of the systems always implies that the application of new technologies is a process of trial and error.