Barents 2050: Impacts, opportunities, and risks of climate change and climate change mitigation

The Barents region can contribute to the Paris Agreement's aims to mitigate climate change in numerous ways. At the same time, the Barents region will face the impacts of a changing climate, particularly if the Paris Agreement will not be effective in limiting global greenhouse gas emissions. The transformation to a sustainable, low-carbon society will create both pressure for businesses to adapt to changing conditions and also offer a number of new opportunities and markets. Enhanced policy action is necessary to achieve the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement and realize the opportunities in each sector. Political action is needed on national, regional, and municipal level, but these levels should work together and complement each other. This report describes the current economic and demographic structure of the Barents region, portrays long-term energy and emission scenarios on how the Barents region countries could achieve the Paris Agreement targets, and how a changing climate might affect the region and its economic activities by 2050. This study explores opportunities how the most important economic sectors in the Barents region could contribute to the mitigation action. In addition, we explore possible benefits, threats, and risks that climate change and and climate change mitigation poses to these sectors in the Barents region.