Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: Flaws in assumptions

Arho Suominen, M Seppänen

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    8 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Purpose - Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data. Design/methodology/approach - We use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. Findings - We show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity. Originality/value - We are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)37-53
    JournalForesight
    Volume16
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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    Extrapolation
    Life cycle
    Defects
    Flash memory
    Light emitting diodes
    Technology life cycle
    Bibliometrics

    Cite this

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    title = "Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: Flaws in assumptions",
    abstract = "Purpose - Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data. Design/methodology/approach - We use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. Findings - We show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity. Originality/value - We are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed",
    author = "Arho Suominen and M Sepp{\"a}nen",
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    Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles : Flaws in assumptions. / Suominen, Arho; Seppänen, M.

    In: Foresight, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2014, p. 37-53.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles

    T2 - Flaws in assumptions

    AU - Suominen, Arho

    AU - Seppänen, M

    N1 - Project code: 75913

    PY - 2014

    Y1 - 2014

    N2 - Purpose - Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data. Design/methodology/approach - We use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. Findings - We show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity. Originality/value - We are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed

    AB - Purpose - Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data. Design/methodology/approach - We use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. Findings - We show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity. Originality/value - We are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed

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