Abstract
Purpose - Motivated with the ever growing number of
bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate
through two technologies how the selection of an upper
limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of
technology development measured with bibliometric data.
Design/methodology/approach - We use Gompertz and
Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development
of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show
with extrapolation results from several bibliometric
sources how a typical bias is caused in trend
extrapolations.
Findings - We show how drastic an effect the decision to
set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be
used as a reference for applications. We recommend
carefully to examining the interconnection of actual
development and bibliometric activity.
Originality/value - We are motivated by the fact that
despite increasing interest in modelling technological
data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic
assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend
extrapolations are applied more widely in different
disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be
explicitly expressed
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 37-53 |
Journal | Foresight |
Volume | 16 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2014 |
MoE publication type | A1 Journal article-refereed |