Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: Flaws in assumptions

Arho Suominen, M Seppänen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Purpose - Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data. Design/methodology/approach - We use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. Findings - We show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity. Originality/value - We are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)37-53
JournalForesight
Volume16
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fingerprint

Extrapolation
Life cycle
Defects
Flash memory
Light emitting diodes
Technology life cycle
Bibliometrics

Cite this

@article{8a85899d1fd14f67abe0b29ee3fc54fc,
title = "Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: Flaws in assumptions",
abstract = "Purpose - Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data. Design/methodology/approach - We use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. Findings - We show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity. Originality/value - We are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed",
author = "Arho Suominen and M Sepp{\"a}nen",
note = "Project code: 75913",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1108/FS-03-2013-0007",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
pages = "37--53",
journal = "Foresight",
issn = "1463-6689",
publisher = "Emerald Publishing Limited",
number = "1",

}

Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles : Flaws in assumptions. / Suominen, Arho; Seppänen, M.

In: Foresight, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2014, p. 37-53.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles

T2 - Flaws in assumptions

AU - Suominen, Arho

AU - Seppänen, M

N1 - Project code: 75913

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Purpose - Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data. Design/methodology/approach - We use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. Findings - We show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity. Originality/value - We are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed

AB - Purpose - Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, we demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data. Design/methodology/approach - We use Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. Findings - We show how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. We recommend carefully to examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity. Originality/value - We are motivated by the fact that despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed

U2 - 10.1108/FS-03-2013-0007

DO - 10.1108/FS-03-2013-0007

M3 - Article

VL - 16

SP - 37

EP - 53

JO - Foresight

JF - Foresight

SN - 1463-6689

IS - 1

ER -