Biofuel production in an integrated forest biorefinery: Technology identification under uncertainty

Lignocellulosic biorefinery processes for biofuel production are developing rapidly but their commercialization may still take some years. Incorrectly identifying the most promising technologies from the existing options based on their current development stage, estimated future costs of plant construction, prices of raw materials and end products poses a risk of making less favourable decisions. To mitigate these risks in design decision making, technical- and market-based uncertainties should be considered in techno-economic assessments. Monte Carlo analysis can be used in a systematic technology identification approach to account for these risks in preliminary screening of integrated forest biorefinery options. This paper will discuss the large block analysis approach including uncertainty estimations with Monte Carlo simulation. The results of using this approach in a case study to investigate the feasibility of integrated biofuel production from several raw materials with several technologies at a North American integrated kraft pulp and paper mill are also discussed. These results will help this mill to select the right technology, or combination of technologies, for further consideration in the context of biofuel production.