Charting Contested Ground: Exploring Quantum Computing’s Varied Futures

Background and Purpose. Quantum computing is based on principles that challenge our common understanding of the universe. Understanding how it works requires a complete rehaul of our thinking about computing, which is beyond the current capabilities of most. However, in recent years, its potential to transform our businesses and societies has been popularized, offering promise to solve pressing global challenges, including climate change, drug discovery, and secure communication. It also poses serious threats, notably regarding cybersecurity and geopolitical power imbalances. These divergent views on the future enabled by quantum computing often arise from isolated knowledge bases. Each stakeholder group—researchers, policymakers, industry players, and civil society—maintains unique assumptions, beliefs, and objectives. This study investigates how these varying perspectives emerge and evolve. The primary research question focuses on how divergent views of the future can be traced back to underlying stakeholder values, beliefs, motivations and interests. Methods. The research employed a multi-method approach. First, desk research was conducted to form a foundational understanding of quantum computing trends, encompassing market forecasts, peerreviewed research articles, and policy papers. Second, interviews were held with key stakeholders to capture various viewpoints and assumptions about the emerging technology and its impacts. Third, a series of scenario workshops provided structured environments in which participants could debate alternative quantum futures. Finally, a trend radar workshop synthesized technological signals and social drivers, offering insights into emerging opportunities and threats. Findings. Preliminary results confirm that different stakeholders are highly influenced by their roles, expectations within their social groups, and the information they are exposed to. Quantum computing is
not a singular technology but a cluster of diverse, evolving platforms. While its transformative potential is widely acknowledged, concerns related to national security, economic advantage, and ethical implications vary significantly among stakeholder groups. Political interests and limitations also play a crucial role, particularly given quantum computing’s dual-use nature. Conclusions and Implications. The findings underscore the importance of foresight methodologies in navigating the fragmented understanding of the future enabled by extremely complex emerging technology. By integrating multiple stakeholder perspectives and multiple time horizons, foresight can help policymakers and practitioners identify realistic near-term opportunities and risk, but also mindbending future possibilities. This approach offers a pathway to more informed policy, more robust innovation strategies, and deeper collaboration in shaping the trajectories of quantum technology.