Clearing of roads to Hästholmen after a storm: a case study in emergency operations modelling

    Research output: Book/ReportReport


    Securing logistical connections to a nuclear power plant, especially in exceptional circumstances, is an important part of nuclear safety. This report considers the schedule risk of clearing a road transport route to the Hästholmen nuclear power plant site after a storm as cut down trees that block some essential roads. The local road network is described. A coarse inventory is made of the trees that might block traffic on a road in this network if they fell on it in a suitable angle. The work process of a fireman crew clearing the road is presented, and an activity network model of the process is formulated. A Monte Carlo simulation model of the network, with probabilistic distributions for the durations of individual activities, is implemented in Microsoft Excel and analysed. The model describes one scenario, where a west storm has fallen down trees. To illustrate the use of an emergency operations model in decision support, two alternative courses of action are modelled and analysed: one in which a single fire crew clears Atomitie, and another where the fire foreman, after situation assessment, calls another crew to clear Lappomjärventie which constitutes a parallel route to Hästholmen for much of Atomitie's length. The model class, activity networks, and the analysis method, Monte Carlo simulation, are useful in analysing schedule risks of operations. However, a comprehensive analysis requires the analysis of more weather scenarios, a more detailed analysis and representation of various alternatives of the clearing process, more attention to the probability that a wind of certain speed can fall down a given tree, and other considerations.
    Original languageEnglish
    PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
    Number of pages28
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    MoE publication typeD4 Published development or research report or study

    Publication series

    SeriesVTT Research Report


    • prevention and emergency operations
    • mathematical modelling
    • nuclear safety
    • probabilistic risk analysis


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