Climate change mitigation through increased wood use in the European construction sector

Towards an integrated modelling framework

Ljusk Ola Eriksson (Corresponding Author), Leif Gustavsson, Riitta Hänninen, Maarit Kallio, Henna Lyhykäinen, Kim Pingoud, Johanna Pohjola, Roger Sathre, Birger Solberg, Jarle Svanaes, Lauri Valsta

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

25 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008–2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2–0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)131-144
JournalEuropean Journal of Forest Research
Volume131
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fingerprint

climate change
modeling
forest management
markets
market
carbon emission
carbon
trade flow
wood construction
market development
timber supply
climate change mitigation
carbon balance
new markets
bioenergy
wood products
commodity
timber
products and commodities
carbon sinks

Keywords

  • Climate change mitigation
  • Integrated modelling
  • Wood substitution
  • Forest economics
  • Forest management
  • Wood construction

Cite this

Eriksson, Ljusk Ola ; Gustavsson, Leif ; Hänninen, Riitta ; Kallio, Maarit ; Lyhykäinen, Henna ; Pingoud, Kim ; Pohjola, Johanna ; Sathre, Roger ; Solberg, Birger ; Svanaes, Jarle ; Valsta, Lauri. / Climate change mitigation through increased wood use in the European construction sector : Towards an integrated modelling framework. In: European Journal of Forest Research. 2012 ; Vol. 131, No. 1. pp. 131-144.
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keywords = "Climate change mitigation, Integrated modelling, Wood substitution, Forest economics, Forest management, Wood construction",
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Eriksson, LO, Gustavsson, L, Hänninen, R, Kallio, M, Lyhykäinen, H, Pingoud, K, Pohjola, J, Sathre, R, Solberg, B, Svanaes, J & Valsta, L 2012, 'Climate change mitigation through increased wood use in the European construction sector: Towards an integrated modelling framework', European Journal of Forest Research, vol. 131, no. 1, pp. 131-144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-010-0463-3

Climate change mitigation through increased wood use in the European construction sector : Towards an integrated modelling framework. / Eriksson, Ljusk Ola (Corresponding Author); Gustavsson, Leif; Hänninen, Riitta; Kallio, Maarit; Lyhykäinen, Henna; Pingoud, Kim; Pohjola, Johanna; Sathre, Roger; Solberg, Birger; Svanaes, Jarle; Valsta, Lauri.

In: European Journal of Forest Research, Vol. 131, No. 1, 2012, p. 131-144.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate change mitigation through increased wood use in the European construction sector

T2 - Towards an integrated modelling framework

AU - Eriksson, Ljusk Ola

AU - Gustavsson, Leif

AU - Hänninen, Riitta

AU - Kallio, Maarit

AU - Lyhykäinen, Henna

AU - Pingoud, Kim

AU - Pohjola, Johanna

AU - Sathre, Roger

AU - Solberg, Birger

AU - Svanaes, Jarle

AU - Valsta, Lauri

PY - 2012

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N2 - Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008–2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2–0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing.

AB - Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008–2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2–0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing.

KW - Climate change mitigation

KW - Integrated modelling

KW - Wood substitution

KW - Forest economics

KW - Forest management

KW - Wood construction

U2 - 10.1007/s10342-010-0463-3

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