Abstract
Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through
several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that
integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial
equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model.
Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual
scenario over a 23-year period (2008–2030). Two scenarios assumed an
additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood
instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect
on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by
0.2–0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the
scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission
reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme
assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn
wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes
and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also
affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the
partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that
increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest
management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on
the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for
that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional
models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding
assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity
in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market
developments; those modules are currently missing.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 131-144 |
Journal | European Journal of Forest Research |
Volume | 131 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2012 |
MoE publication type | A1 Journal article-refereed |
Keywords
- Climate change mitigation
- Integrated modelling
- Wood substitution
- Forest economics
- Forest management
- Wood construction