Combining discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics in RI-ISI risk estimates

Otso Cronvall, Ilkka Männistö (Corresponding Author)

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Based on the research conducted in the Finnish SAFIR project, which is a national nuclear energy research program, discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) methods are further developed and applied in this paper. The purpose of this work is to increase the accuracy of risk estimates used in RI-ISI, and to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different inspection strategies on risk. Piping failure probabilities are obtained by using PFM analyses. PFM has the advantage that its results are not affected by existing in-service inspection (ISI) activities at the nuclear power plants (NPPs), unlike failure probabilities assessed from existing failure data. The PFM results for crack growth are used to construct transition matrices used in a discrete-time Markov process. The application of Markov process allows the examination of effects of inspections on the failure probabilities. Finally, the developed method and results are showcased by applying them to a selected piping system in an existing Finnish NPP.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)732-737
Number of pages6
JournalInternational Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping
Volume86
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fingerprint

Fracture mechanics
Markov processes
Inspection
Nuclear power plants
Piping systems
Nuclear energy
Crack propagation

Keywords

  • in-service inspections
  • probabilistic fracture mechanics
  • probabilistic safety assessment
  • risk informed
  • risk matrix
  • probabilistic risk assessment
  • risk
  • risk assessment
  • fracture mechanics

Cite this

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title = "Combining discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics in RI-ISI risk estimates",
abstract = "Based on the research conducted in the Finnish SAFIR project, which is a national nuclear energy research program, discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) methods are further developed and applied in this paper. The purpose of this work is to increase the accuracy of risk estimates used in RI-ISI, and to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different inspection strategies on risk. Piping failure probabilities are obtained by using PFM analyses. PFM has the advantage that its results are not affected by existing in-service inspection (ISI) activities at the nuclear power plants (NPPs), unlike failure probabilities assessed from existing failure data. The PFM results for crack growth are used to construct transition matrices used in a discrete-time Markov process. The application of Markov process allows the examination of effects of inspections on the failure probabilities. Finally, the developed method and results are showcased by applying them to a selected piping system in an existing Finnish NPP.",
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Combining discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics in RI-ISI risk estimates. / Cronvall, Otso; Männistö, Ilkka (Corresponding Author).

In: International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, Vol. 86, No. 11, 2009, p. 732-737.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Combining discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics in RI-ISI risk estimates

AU - Cronvall, Otso

AU - Männistö, Ilkka

PY - 2009

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AB - Based on the research conducted in the Finnish SAFIR project, which is a national nuclear energy research program, discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) methods are further developed and applied in this paper. The purpose of this work is to increase the accuracy of risk estimates used in RI-ISI, and to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different inspection strategies on risk. Piping failure probabilities are obtained by using PFM analyses. PFM has the advantage that its results are not affected by existing in-service inspection (ISI) activities at the nuclear power plants (NPPs), unlike failure probabilities assessed from existing failure data. The PFM results for crack growth are used to construct transition matrices used in a discrete-time Markov process. The application of Markov process allows the examination of effects of inspections on the failure probabilities. Finally, the developed method and results are showcased by applying them to a selected piping system in an existing Finnish NPP.

KW - in-service inspections

KW - probabilistic fracture mechanics

KW - probabilistic safety assessment

KW - risk informed

KW - risk matrix

KW - probabilistic risk assessment

KW - risk

KW - risk assessment

KW - fracture mechanics

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DO - 10.1016/j.ijpvp.2009.07.004

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JO - International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping

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