Combining discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics in RI-ISI risk estimates

Otso Cronvall, Ilkka Männistö (Corresponding Author)

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    6 Citations (Scopus)


    Based on the research conducted in the Finnish SAFIR project, which is a national nuclear energy research program, discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) methods are further developed and applied in this paper. The purpose of this work is to increase the accuracy of risk estimates used in RI-ISI, and to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different inspection strategies on risk. Piping failure probabilities are obtained by using PFM analyses. PFM has the advantage that its results are not affected by existing in-service inspection (ISI) activities at the nuclear power plants (NPPs), unlike failure probabilities assessed from existing failure data. The PFM results for crack growth are used to construct transition matrices used in a discrete-time Markov process. The application of Markov process allows the examination of effects of inspections on the failure probabilities. Finally, the developed method and results are showcased by applying them to a selected piping system in an existing Finnish NPP.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)732-737
    Number of pages6
    JournalInternational Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping
    Issue number11
    Publication statusPublished - 2009
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed


    • in-service inspections
    • probabilistic fracture mechanics
    • probabilistic safety assessment
    • risk informed
    • risk matrix
    • probabilistic risk assessment
    • risk
    • risk assessment
    • fracture mechanics


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