Combining discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics in RI-ISI risk estimates

Otso Cronvall, Ilkka Männistö (Corresponding Author)

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    5 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Based on the research conducted in the Finnish SAFIR project, which is a national nuclear energy research program, discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) methods are further developed and applied in this paper. The purpose of this work is to increase the accuracy of risk estimates used in RI-ISI, and to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different inspection strategies on risk. Piping failure probabilities are obtained by using PFM analyses. PFM has the advantage that its results are not affected by existing in-service inspection (ISI) activities at the nuclear power plants (NPPs), unlike failure probabilities assessed from existing failure data. The PFM results for crack growth are used to construct transition matrices used in a discrete-time Markov process. The application of Markov process allows the examination of effects of inspections on the failure probabilities. Finally, the developed method and results are showcased by applying them to a selected piping system in an existing Finnish NPP.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)732-737
    Number of pages6
    JournalInternational Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping
    Volume86
    Issue number11
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2009
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

    Fingerprint

    Fracture mechanics
    Markov processes
    Inspection
    Nuclear power plants
    Piping systems
    Nuclear energy
    Crack propagation

    Keywords

    • in-service inspections
    • probabilistic fracture mechanics
    • probabilistic safety assessment
    • risk informed
    • risk matrix
    • probabilistic risk assessment
    • risk
    • risk assessment
    • fracture mechanics

    Cite this

    @article{82b8c215a4254b2bb828c2b7f596b286,
    title = "Combining discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics in RI-ISI risk estimates",
    abstract = "Based on the research conducted in the Finnish SAFIR project, which is a national nuclear energy research program, discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) methods are further developed and applied in this paper. The purpose of this work is to increase the accuracy of risk estimates used in RI-ISI, and to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different inspection strategies on risk. Piping failure probabilities are obtained by using PFM analyses. PFM has the advantage that its results are not affected by existing in-service inspection (ISI) activities at the nuclear power plants (NPPs), unlike failure probabilities assessed from existing failure data. The PFM results for crack growth are used to construct transition matrices used in a discrete-time Markov process. The application of Markov process allows the examination of effects of inspections on the failure probabilities. Finally, the developed method and results are showcased by applying them to a selected piping system in an existing Finnish NPP.",
    keywords = "in-service inspections, probabilistic fracture mechanics, probabilistic safety assessment, risk informed, risk matrix, probabilistic risk assessment, risk, risk assessment, fracture mechanics",
    author = "Otso Cronvall and Ilkka M{\"a}nnist{\"o}",
    year = "2009",
    doi = "10.1016/j.ijpvp.2009.07.004",
    language = "English",
    volume = "86",
    pages = "732--737",
    journal = "International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping",
    issn = "0308-0161",
    publisher = "Elsevier",
    number = "11",

    }

    Combining discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics in RI-ISI risk estimates. / Cronvall, Otso; Männistö, Ilkka (Corresponding Author).

    In: International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, Vol. 86, No. 11, 2009, p. 732-737.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Combining discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics in RI-ISI risk estimates

    AU - Cronvall, Otso

    AU - Männistö, Ilkka

    PY - 2009

    Y1 - 2009

    N2 - Based on the research conducted in the Finnish SAFIR project, which is a national nuclear energy research program, discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) methods are further developed and applied in this paper. The purpose of this work is to increase the accuracy of risk estimates used in RI-ISI, and to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different inspection strategies on risk. Piping failure probabilities are obtained by using PFM analyses. PFM has the advantage that its results are not affected by existing in-service inspection (ISI) activities at the nuclear power plants (NPPs), unlike failure probabilities assessed from existing failure data. The PFM results for crack growth are used to construct transition matrices used in a discrete-time Markov process. The application of Markov process allows the examination of effects of inspections on the failure probabilities. Finally, the developed method and results are showcased by applying them to a selected piping system in an existing Finnish NPP.

    AB - Based on the research conducted in the Finnish SAFIR project, which is a national nuclear energy research program, discrete-time Markov processes and probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) methods are further developed and applied in this paper. The purpose of this work is to increase the accuracy of risk estimates used in RI-ISI, and to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different inspection strategies on risk. Piping failure probabilities are obtained by using PFM analyses. PFM has the advantage that its results are not affected by existing in-service inspection (ISI) activities at the nuclear power plants (NPPs), unlike failure probabilities assessed from existing failure data. The PFM results for crack growth are used to construct transition matrices used in a discrete-time Markov process. The application of Markov process allows the examination of effects of inspections on the failure probabilities. Finally, the developed method and results are showcased by applying them to a selected piping system in an existing Finnish NPP.

    KW - in-service inspections

    KW - probabilistic fracture mechanics

    KW - probabilistic safety assessment

    KW - risk informed

    KW - risk matrix

    KW - probabilistic risk assessment

    KW - risk

    KW - risk assessment

    KW - fracture mechanics

    U2 - 10.1016/j.ijpvp.2009.07.004

    DO - 10.1016/j.ijpvp.2009.07.004

    M3 - Article

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    SP - 732

    EP - 737

    JO - International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping

    JF - International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping

    SN - 0308-0161

    IS - 11

    ER -