Critical raw materials for green transition: Key parameters and feasibility index for sufficiency

Patrik Granvik; Jyri Hanski; Seppo Lähdesmäki; Ari Jokilaakso; Elina Huttunen-Saarivirta

doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108197

Critical raw materials for green transition: Key parameters and feasibility index for sufficiency

Patrik Granvik^*, Jyri Hanski, Seppo Lähdesmäki, Ari Jokilaakso, Elina Huttunen-Saarivirta

^*Corresponding author for this work

Aalto University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

Abstract

The sufficiency of critical raw materials (CRMs) is crucial for the green transition, driven by increased demand in technologies, like EVs and renewable energy. A Scenario Forecast Tool (SFT) has been introduced to predict future CRM demand and supply. The high demand scenario revealed more than tenfold relative increase for lithium and cobalt from 2021 to 2050. For magnet materials, the most significant growth was forecasted for dysprosium, fourfold from 2021 to 2040. Using SFT we identified Key Parameters impacting CRM sufficiency and employed a Feasibility Index (FI) to develop realistic strategies for balancing CRM demand and supply. We demonstrated that with an FI75 value, the demand for most metals could be satisfied independently of used scenario. However, for certain metals, like lithium, FI75 did not meet the demand in high demand scenario. FI enables weighing the relative importance of KPs, a foundation for an activity roadmap for CRM sufficiency.

Original language	English
Article number	108197
Journal	Resources, Conservation and Recycling
Volume	218
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108197
Publication status	Published - 15 May 2025
MoE publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

Financial support by the Finnish Innovation Fund and Research Council of Finland (funding decisions 346728 and 346722) is gratefully acknowledged.

Keywords

Green transition
Metals sufficiency
Metals demand
Critical raw materials
Feasibility index
Key parameters

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108197Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Critical raw materials for green transition: Key parameters and feasibility index for sufficiency",

abstract = "The sufficiency of critical raw materials (CRMs) is crucial for the green transition, driven by increased demand in technologies, like EVs and renewable energy. A Scenario Forecast Tool (SFT) has been introduced to predict future CRM demand and supply. The high demand scenario revealed more than tenfold relative increase for lithium and cobalt from 2021 to 2050. For magnet materials, the most significant growth was forecasted for dysprosium, fourfold from 2021 to 2040. Using SFT we identified Key Parameters impacting CRM sufficiency and employed a Feasibility Index (FI) to develop realistic strategies for balancing CRM demand and supply. We demonstrated that with an FI75 value, the demand for most metals could be satisfied independently of used scenario. However, for certain metals, like lithium, FI75 did not meet the demand in high demand scenario. FI enables weighing the relative importance of KPs, a foundation for an activity roadmap for CRM sufficiency.",

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AU - Granvik, Patrik

AU - Hanski, Jyri

AU - Lähdesmäki, Seppo

AU - Jokilaakso, Ari

AU - Huttunen-Saarivirta, Elina

PY - 2025/5/15

Y1 - 2025/5/15

N2 - The sufficiency of critical raw materials (CRMs) is crucial for the green transition, driven by increased demand in technologies, like EVs and renewable energy. A Scenario Forecast Tool (SFT) has been introduced to predict future CRM demand and supply. The high demand scenario revealed more than tenfold relative increase for lithium and cobalt from 2021 to 2050. For magnet materials, the most significant growth was forecasted for dysprosium, fourfold from 2021 to 2040. Using SFT we identified Key Parameters impacting CRM sufficiency and employed a Feasibility Index (FI) to develop realistic strategies for balancing CRM demand and supply. We demonstrated that with an FI75 value, the demand for most metals could be satisfied independently of used scenario. However, for certain metals, like lithium, FI75 did not meet the demand in high demand scenario. FI enables weighing the relative importance of KPs, a foundation for an activity roadmap for CRM sufficiency.

AB - The sufficiency of critical raw materials (CRMs) is crucial for the green transition, driven by increased demand in technologies, like EVs and renewable energy. A Scenario Forecast Tool (SFT) has been introduced to predict future CRM demand and supply. The high demand scenario revealed more than tenfold relative increase for lithium and cobalt from 2021 to 2050. For magnet materials, the most significant growth was forecasted for dysprosium, fourfold from 2021 to 2040. Using SFT we identified Key Parameters impacting CRM sufficiency and employed a Feasibility Index (FI) to develop realistic strategies for balancing CRM demand and supply. We demonstrated that with an FI75 value, the demand for most metals could be satisfied independently of used scenario. However, for certain metals, like lithium, FI75 did not meet the demand in high demand scenario. FI enables weighing the relative importance of KPs, a foundation for an activity roadmap for CRM sufficiency.

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KW - Metals sufficiency

KW - Metals demand

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KW - Feasibility index

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Critical raw materials for green transition: Key parameters and feasibility index for sufficiency

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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GoverMat: Multi-level governance of critical materials for future electric mobility

Cite this

Critical raw materials for green transition: Key parameters and feasibility index for sufficiency

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Projects

GoverMat: Multi-level governance of critical materials for future electric mobility

Cite this