Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption

Juha Panula-Ontto, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jari Kaivo-oja, Tadhg O'Mahony, Jarmo Vehmas, Seppo Valkealahti, Tomas Björkqvist, Timo Korpela, Pertti Järventausta, Yrjö Majanne, Matti Kojo, Pami Aalto, Pirkko Harsia, Kari Kallioharju, Hannele Holttinen, Sami Repo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)504-513
Number of pages10
JournalEnergy Policy
Volume118
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2018
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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Energy policy
energy policy
electricity
Electricity
energy
planning system
Climate change
Planning
Economics
climate change
Carbon
consumption
analysis
carbon
climate
resource
economics
modeling
economy

Keywords

  • Cross-impact analysis
  • Electricity system
  • Low-carbon
  • Renewables
  • Transition

Cite this

Panula-Ontto, Juha ; Luukkanen, Jyrki ; Kaivo-oja, Jari ; O'Mahony, Tadhg ; Vehmas, Jarmo ; Valkealahti, Seppo ; Björkqvist, Tomas ; Korpela, Timo ; Järventausta, Pertti ; Majanne, Yrjö ; Kojo, Matti ; Aalto, Pami ; Harsia, Pirkko ; Kallioharju, Kari ; Holttinen, Hannele ; Repo, Sami. / Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables : Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption. In: Energy Policy. 2018 ; Vol. 118. pp. 504-513.
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abstract = "Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.",
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Panula-Ontto, J, Luukkanen, J, Kaivo-oja, J, O'Mahony, T, Vehmas, J, Valkealahti, S, Björkqvist, T, Korpela, T, Järventausta, P, Majanne, Y, Kojo, M, Aalto, P, Harsia, P, Kallioharju, K, Holttinen, H & Repo, S 2018, 'Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption', Energy Policy, vol. 118, pp. 504-513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.009

Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables : Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption. / Panula-Ontto, Juha; Luukkanen, Jyrki; Kaivo-oja, Jari; O'Mahony, Tadhg; Vehmas, Jarmo; Valkealahti, Seppo; Björkqvist, Tomas; Korpela, Timo; Järventausta, Pertti; Majanne, Yrjö; Kojo, Matti; Aalto, Pami; Harsia, Pirkko; Kallioharju, Kari; Holttinen, Hannele; Repo, Sami.

In: Energy Policy, Vol. 118, 01.07.2018, p. 504-513.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables

T2 - Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption

AU - Panula-Ontto, Juha

AU - Luukkanen, Jyrki

AU - Kaivo-oja, Jari

AU - O'Mahony, Tadhg

AU - Vehmas, Jarmo

AU - Valkealahti, Seppo

AU - Björkqvist, Tomas

AU - Korpela, Timo

AU - Järventausta, Pertti

AU - Majanne, Yrjö

AU - Kojo, Matti

AU - Aalto, Pami

AU - Harsia, Pirkko

AU - Kallioharju, Kari

AU - Holttinen, Hannele

AU - Repo, Sami

PY - 2018/7/1

Y1 - 2018/7/1

N2 - Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.

AB - Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.

KW - Cross-impact analysis

KW - Electricity system

KW - Low-carbon

KW - Renewables

KW - Transition

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U2 - 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.009

DO - 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.009

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85045762685

VL - 118

SP - 504

EP - 513

JO - Energy Policy

JF - Energy Policy

SN - 0301-4215

ER -