TY - JOUR
T1 - Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables
T2 - Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption
AU - Panula-Ontto, Juha
AU - Luukkanen, Jyrki
AU - Kaivo-oja, Jari
AU - O'Mahony, Tadhg
AU - Vehmas, Jarmo
AU - Valkealahti, Seppo
AU - Björkqvist, Tomas
AU - Korpela, Timo
AU - Järventausta, Pertti
AU - Majanne, Yrjö
AU - Kojo, Matti
AU - Aalto, Pami
AU - Harsia, Pirkko
AU - Kallioharju, Kari
AU - Holttinen, Hannele
AU - Repo, Sami
N1 - Funding Information:
This work has been supported by the Strategic Research Council at the Academy of Finland , project “Transition to a resource efficient and climate neutral electricity system” (EL-TRAN) , grant number 293437 .
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018
Copyright:
Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2018/7/1
Y1 - 2018/7/1
N2 - Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.
AB - Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.
KW - Cross-impact analysis
KW - Electricity system
KW - Low-carbon
KW - Renewables
KW - Transition
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85045762685&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.009
DO - 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.009
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85045762685
SN - 0301-4215
VL - 118
SP - 504
EP - 513
JO - Energy Policy
JF - Energy Policy
ER -
