Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption

Juha Panula-Ontto, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jari Kaivo-oja, Tadhg O'Mahony, Jarmo Vehmas, Seppo Valkealahti, Tomas Björkqvist, Timo Korpela, Pertti Järventausta, Yrjö Majanne, Matti Kojo, Pami Aalto, Pirkko Harsia, Kari Kallioharju, Hannele Holttinen, Sami Repo

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    5 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)504-513
    Number of pages10
    JournalEnergy Policy
    Volume118
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2018
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

    Fingerprint

    Energy policy
    energy policy
    electricity
    Electricity
    energy
    planning system
    Climate change
    Planning
    Economics
    climate change
    Carbon
    consumption
    analysis
    carbon
    climate
    resource
    economics
    modeling
    economy

    Keywords

    • Cross-impact analysis
    • Electricity system
    • Low-carbon
    • Renewables
    • Transition

    Cite this

    Panula-Ontto, Juha ; Luukkanen, Jyrki ; Kaivo-oja, Jari ; O'Mahony, Tadhg ; Vehmas, Jarmo ; Valkealahti, Seppo ; Björkqvist, Tomas ; Korpela, Timo ; Järventausta, Pertti ; Majanne, Yrjö ; Kojo, Matti ; Aalto, Pami ; Harsia, Pirkko ; Kallioharju, Kari ; Holttinen, Hannele ; Repo, Sami. / Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables : Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption. In: Energy Policy. 2018 ; Vol. 118. pp. 504-513.
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    title = "Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption",
    abstract = "Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.",
    keywords = "Cross-impact analysis, Electricity system, Low-carbon, Renewables, Transition",
    author = "Juha Panula-Ontto and Jyrki Luukkanen and Jari Kaivo-oja and Tadhg O'Mahony and Jarmo Vehmas and Seppo Valkealahti and Tomas Bj{\"o}rkqvist and Timo Korpela and Pertti J{\"a}rventausta and Yrj{\"o} Majanne and Matti Kojo and Pami Aalto and Pirkko Harsia and Kari Kallioharju and Hannele Holttinen and Sami Repo",
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    Panula-Ontto, J, Luukkanen, J, Kaivo-oja, J, O'Mahony, T, Vehmas, J, Valkealahti, S, Björkqvist, T, Korpela, T, Järventausta, P, Majanne, Y, Kojo, M, Aalto, P, Harsia, P, Kallioharju, K, Holttinen, H & Repo, S 2018, 'Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption', Energy Policy, vol. 118, pp. 504-513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.009

    Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables : Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption. / Panula-Ontto, Juha; Luukkanen, Jyrki; Kaivo-oja, Jari; O'Mahony, Tadhg; Vehmas, Jarmo; Valkealahti, Seppo; Björkqvist, Tomas; Korpela, Timo; Järventausta, Pertti; Majanne, Yrjö; Kojo, Matti; Aalto, Pami; Harsia, Pirkko; Kallioharju, Kari; Holttinen, Hannele; Repo, Sami.

    In: Energy Policy, Vol. 118, 01.07.2018, p. 504-513.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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    AU - Panula-Ontto, Juha

    AU - Luukkanen, Jyrki

    AU - Kaivo-oja, Jari

    AU - O'Mahony, Tadhg

    AU - Vehmas, Jarmo

    AU - Valkealahti, Seppo

    AU - Björkqvist, Tomas

    AU - Korpela, Timo

    AU - Järventausta, Pertti

    AU - Majanne, Yrjö

    AU - Kojo, Matti

    AU - Aalto, Pami

    AU - Harsia, Pirkko

    AU - Kallioharju, Kari

    AU - Holttinen, Hannele

    AU - Repo, Sami

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    N2 - Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.

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    KW - Electricity system

    KW - Low-carbon

    KW - Renewables

    KW - Transition

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