Day-ahead electricity market estimation of Finland in 2030

The European Green Deal targets to increase significantly the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the electricity system by 2030. However, the electricity market is a competed sector and the private investors develop RES capacity based on the profitability of the business plan. The RES profitability depends strongly on the long-term future price of the electricity market, which needs to be estimated. Although several studies focus on developing accurate short-time forecasting methods for the day-ahead market, these methods cannot be used for long-term forecasting due to uncertainty of the required inputs, e.g. weather condition and fuel cost, in a long-term future. In these circumstances, this paper developed a methodology to analyse and estimate the long-term day-ahead electricity market. This research used the data of Finnish electricity market to show the performance of the methodology. However, the same methodology could also be applied to other countries.