Deliverable D7.2 / Effects

This deliverable summarises and connects the results of the individual impact areas addressed in the Hi-Drive impact assessment, which are presented in Deliverables D7.3 (safety), D7.4 (mobility, efficiency, environment, and transport system), and D7.5 (socioeconomic). The aim of the impact assessment was to analyse the effects of automated driving (AD) incorporating Hi-Drive technology enablers such as connectivity and advanced positioning. These were compared with AD without enablers to determine the enabler effects, but also with manual driving to identify the overall effects of AD and its enablers. For manual driving, two different future baseline scenarios were considered: the traffic-today baseline, representing the current penetration of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), and the full-mandatory-ADAS baseline, representing an adjusted baseline that accounts for the increasing future ADAS penetration due to ADAS mandated by law.
The mobility impact assessment was performed based on extensive global surveys including more than 17,000 respondents from nine different countries within the EU and beyond. The effects for the impact areas safety, efficiency, environment, and transport system were calculated based on simulations. The impact assessments for safety, efficiency, and environment used harmonised modelling of the automated driving functions (ADFs) and the enablers, which was calibrated with real-world driving data gathered as part of the Hi-Drive project. The transport system impact assessment used macroscopic simulations incorporating results from the mobility and efficiency impact assessments. Finally, the socioeconomic impact assessment performed a cost-benefit analysis based on the estimated costs and effects across the different impact areas for AD.
Across impact areas, AD and its enablers deliver benefits beyond mandatory ADAS. At 30% penetration, 19.7% of motorway and 21.8% of urban fatal target accidents could be avoided compared to the traffic today baseline; while minimum-risk manoeuvres may introduce a small rise in motorway accidents (0.3%), the safety effect remains clearly positive. ADFs are likely to increase traffic by enabling non‑driving-related activities that improve travel quality and may induce more frequent, longer trips. Efficiency and environmental impacts are modest: travel times rise slightly (0–3% at up to 50% penetration on the European network) due to desired speed changes, with enablers mitigating this; tractive energy per vehicle-kilometre travelled (VKT) decreases dependent on the scenario (0–15%), and CO2 effects are small (−1% to +1%), with enablers able to offset increases.
System‑level modelling shows negligible changes in modal split. Capacity reductions and route choices lead to increases in VKT and vehicle‑hours-travelled, e.g. VKT +1.5% outside the ODD at 50% penetration of the automated driving function and enablers. Socioeconomic benefits are dominated by safety (€22 to €40 bn) and user gains (€23 bn from comfort and the ability to work/relax), partly offset by higher travel time costs (€6.8 to €7.5 bn), and smaller benefits from reduced energy consumption and CO₂ emissions (€0.5 to €1.8 bn). Accounting for vehicle and infrastructure costs yields an average benefit–cost ratio of 1.2 for the full-mandatory-ADAS baseline and 1.8 for the traffic-today baseline, indicating that the benefits of AD and its enablers clearly outweigh the costs. The harmonised AD behaviour used in Hi‑Drive produces robust system‑level results, with strong safety gains accompanied by some efficiency trade‑offs.