Economic impacts of future changes in the energy system: Global perspectives

James Glynn, Patrícia Fortes, Anna Krook-Riekkola, Maryse Labriet, Marc Vielle, Socrates Kypreos, Antti Lehtilä, Peggy Mischke, Hancheng Dai, Maurizio Gargiulo, Per Ivar Helgesen, Tom Kober, Phil Summerton, Bruno Merven, Sandrine Selosse, Kenneth Karlsson, Neil Strachan, Brian Ó. Gallachóir

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter or book articleProfessional

    7 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a global level. The next chapter of this book focuses on a national perspective. The range of economic impacts is regionally dependent upon the stage of economic development, the level of industrialisation, energy intensity of exports, and competition effects due to rates of relative decarbonisation. Developed nation's decarbonisation targets are estimated to result in a manageable GDP loss in the region of 2 % by 2050. Energy intensive export driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel exporting nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5 % GDP per year by mid-century.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationInforming Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models
    Subtitle of host publicationInsights from Scenario Analysis Increasing the Evidence Base
    PublisherSpringer
    Pages333-358
    ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-16540-0
    ISBN (Print)978-3-319-16539-4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 7 Apr 2015
    MoE publication typeD2 Article in professional manuals or guides or professional information systems or text book material

    Publication series

    SeriesLecture Notes in Energy
    Volume30

    Fingerprint

    global perspective
    economic impact
    Gross Domestic Product
    energy
    macroeconomics
    industrialization
    fossil fuel
    economic development
    developing world
    climate change
    methodology
    climate
    modeling

    Keywords

    • energy system
    • climate policy
    • computable general equilibrium
    • international energy agency
    • computable general equilibrium model

    Cite this

    Glynn, J., Fortes, P., Krook-Riekkola, A., Labriet, M., Vielle, M., Kypreos, S., ... Gallachóir, B. Ó. (2015). Economic impacts of future changes in the energy system: Global perspectives. In Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models: Insights from Scenario Analysis Increasing the Evidence Base (pp. 333-358). Springer. Lecture Notes in Energy, Vol.. 30 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0_19
    Glynn, James ; Fortes, Patrícia ; Krook-Riekkola, Anna ; Labriet, Maryse ; Vielle, Marc ; Kypreos, Socrates ; Lehtilä, Antti ; Mischke, Peggy ; Dai, Hancheng ; Gargiulo, Maurizio ; Helgesen, Per Ivar ; Kober, Tom ; Summerton, Phil ; Merven, Bruno ; Selosse, Sandrine ; Karlsson, Kenneth ; Strachan, Neil ; Gallachóir, Brian Ó. / Economic impacts of future changes in the energy system : Global perspectives. Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models: Insights from Scenario Analysis Increasing the Evidence Base. Springer, 2015. pp. 333-358 (Lecture Notes in Energy, Vol. 30).
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    abstract = "In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a global level. The next chapter of this book focuses on a national perspective. The range of economic impacts is regionally dependent upon the stage of economic development, the level of industrialisation, energy intensity of exports, and competition effects due to rates of relative decarbonisation. Developed nation's decarbonisation targets are estimated to result in a manageable GDP loss in the region of 2 {\%} by 2050. Energy intensive export driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel exporting nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5 {\%} GDP per year by mid-century.",
    keywords = "energy system, climate policy, computable general equilibrium, international energy agency, computable general equilibrium model",
    author = "James Glynn and Patr{\'i}cia Fortes and Anna Krook-Riekkola and Maryse Labriet and Marc Vielle and Socrates Kypreos and Antti Lehtil{\"a} and Peggy Mischke and Hancheng Dai and Maurizio Gargiulo and Helgesen, {Per Ivar} and Tom Kober and Phil Summerton and Bruno Merven and Sandrine Selosse and Kenneth Karlsson and Neil Strachan and Gallach{\'o}ir, {Brian {\'O}.}",
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    Glynn, J, Fortes, P, Krook-Riekkola, A, Labriet, M, Vielle, M, Kypreos, S, Lehtilä, A, Mischke, P, Dai, H, Gargiulo, M, Helgesen, PI, Kober, T, Summerton, P, Merven, B, Selosse, S, Karlsson, K, Strachan, N & Gallachóir, BÓ 2015, Economic impacts of future changes in the energy system: Global perspectives. in Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models: Insights from Scenario Analysis Increasing the Evidence Base. Springer, Lecture Notes in Energy, vol. 30, pp. 333-358. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0_19

    Economic impacts of future changes in the energy system : Global perspectives. / Glynn, James; Fortes, Patrícia; Krook-Riekkola, Anna; Labriet, Maryse; Vielle, Marc; Kypreos, Socrates; Lehtilä, Antti; Mischke, Peggy; Dai, Hancheng; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Helgesen, Per Ivar; Kober, Tom; Summerton, Phil; Merven, Bruno; Selosse, Sandrine; Karlsson, Kenneth; Strachan, Neil; Gallachóir, Brian Ó.

    Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models: Insights from Scenario Analysis Increasing the Evidence Base. Springer, 2015. p. 333-358 (Lecture Notes in Energy, Vol. 30).

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter or book articleProfessional

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    AU - Gargiulo, Maurizio

    AU - Helgesen, Per Ivar

    AU - Kober, Tom

    AU - Summerton, Phil

    AU - Merven, Bruno

    AU - Selosse, Sandrine

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    KW - climate policy

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    Glynn J, Fortes P, Krook-Riekkola A, Labriet M, Vielle M, Kypreos S et al. Economic impacts of future changes in the energy system: Global perspectives. In Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models: Insights from Scenario Analysis Increasing the Evidence Base. Springer. 2015. p. 333-358. (Lecture Notes in Energy, Vol. 30). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0_19