Emission gap to 2 degree pathways: Framework to assess the ambition of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs

Tomi J. Lindroos, Tommi Ekholm

    Research output: Book/ReportReport


    New international climate change agreement is the main target of Paris climate negotiations in Paris in December 2015. For the agreement, countries will give promises of emission reductions. Previously these promises have been referred as 'pledges' but, for Paris negotiations, countries will submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Three largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting countries (China, USA and EU) have given some indications of their INDCs. This report summarizes existing pledges and preliminary INDCs for Paris. Current pledges have varying scopes and coverages. Countries are urged to attach qualitative information to their INDCs, but the level of submitted details is unknown at the time of the writing. This report provides a framework to assess and compare the existing pledges and INDCs after country submissions. Report profiles and analyses 8 biggest GHG emitting countries: China, USA, EU, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil and Japan. The rest of the world is assessed more briefly. Each country profile includes emission statistics; summary of country's pledge and preliminary INDC when available; comparison of the GHG projection under current legislation and the country's pledge; GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 with different ambition levels; and calculated emission reduction indicators from these scenarios such as GHG per GDP, GHG per capita and renewable energy share. Based on these national scenarios, we compile three global emission reduction scenarios and compare these three scenarios to the 2 degree target pathways. The GHG development under the current legislation is at too high level compared to the 2 degree target, but ambitious GHG reductions may still be sufficient to reach 2 degree target. We need quick action to reach these emission low carbon pathways.
    Original languageEnglish
    PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
    Number of pages40
    Publication statusPublished - 2015
    MoE publication typeD4 Published development or research report or study

    Publication series

    SeriesVTT Research Report


    • 2 degree target
    • pledges
    • emission gap
    • ghg projections


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