Emission gap to 2 degree pathways

Framework to assess the ambition of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs

Tomi J. Lindroos, Tommi Ekholm

Research output: Book/ReportReportProfessional

Abstract

New international climate change agreement is the main target of Paris climate negotiations in Paris in December 2015. For the agreement, countries will give promises of emission reductions. Previously these promises have been referred as 'pledges' but, for Paris negotiations, countries will submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Three largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting countries (China, USA and EU) have given some indications of their INDCs. This report summarizes existing pledges and preliminary INDCs for Paris. Current pledges have varying scopes and coverages. Countries are urged to attach qualitative information to their INDCs, but the level of submitted details is unknown at the time of the writing. This report provides a framework to assess and compare the existing pledges and INDCs after country submissions. Report profiles and analyses 8 biggest GHG emitting countries: China, USA, EU, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil and Japan. The rest of the world is assessed more briefly. Each country profile includes emission statistics; summary of country's pledge and preliminary INDC when available; comparison of the GHG projection under current legislation and the country's pledge; GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 with different ambition levels; and calculated emission reduction indicators from these scenarios such as GHG per GDP, GHG per capita and renewable energy share. Based on these national scenarios, we compile three global emission reduction scenarios and compare these three scenarios to the 2 degree target pathways. The GHG development under the current legislation is at too high level compared to the 2 degree target, but ambitious GHG reductions may still be sufficient to reach 2 degree target. We need quick action to reach these emission low carbon pathways.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Number of pages40
Publication statusPublished - 2015
MoE publication typeD4 Published development or research report or study

Publication series

NameResearch Report
PublisherVTT
VolumeVTT-R-00140-15

Fingerprint

greenhouse gas
legislation
Gross Domestic Product
climate change
carbon
climate
energy
emission reduction

Keywords

  • 2 degree target
  • pledges
  • emission gap
  • ghg projections

Cite this

Lindroos, T. J., & Ekholm, T. (2015). Emission gap to 2 degree pathways: Framework to assess the ambition of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT Research Report, Vol.. VTT-R-00140-15
Lindroos, Tomi J. ; Ekholm, Tommi. / Emission gap to 2 degree pathways : Framework to assess the ambition of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2015. 40 p. (VTT Research Report, Vol. VTT-R-00140-15).
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Lindroos, TJ & Ekholm, T 2015, Emission gap to 2 degree pathways: Framework to assess the ambition of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs. VTT Research Report, vol. VTT-R-00140-15, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.

Emission gap to 2 degree pathways : Framework to assess the ambition of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs. / Lindroos, Tomi J.; Ekholm, Tommi.

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2015. 40 p. (VTT Research Report, Vol. VTT-R-00140-15).

Research output: Book/ReportReportProfessional

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AB - New international climate change agreement is the main target of Paris climate negotiations in Paris in December 2015. For the agreement, countries will give promises of emission reductions. Previously these promises have been referred as 'pledges' but, for Paris negotiations, countries will submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Three largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting countries (China, USA and EU) have given some indications of their INDCs. This report summarizes existing pledges and preliminary INDCs for Paris. Current pledges have varying scopes and coverages. Countries are urged to attach qualitative information to their INDCs, but the level of submitted details is unknown at the time of the writing. This report provides a framework to assess and compare the existing pledges and INDCs after country submissions. Report profiles and analyses 8 biggest GHG emitting countries: China, USA, EU, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil and Japan. The rest of the world is assessed more briefly. Each country profile includes emission statistics; summary of country's pledge and preliminary INDC when available; comparison of the GHG projection under current legislation and the country's pledge; GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 with different ambition levels; and calculated emission reduction indicators from these scenarios such as GHG per GDP, GHG per capita and renewable energy share. Based on these national scenarios, we compile three global emission reduction scenarios and compare these three scenarios to the 2 degree target pathways. The GHG development under the current legislation is at too high level compared to the 2 degree target, but ambitious GHG reductions may still be sufficient to reach 2 degree target. We need quick action to reach these emission low carbon pathways.

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Lindroos TJ, Ekholm T. Emission gap to 2 degree pathways: Framework to assess the ambition of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2015. 40 p. (VTT Research Report, Vol. VTT-R-00140-15).