Energy use and emission scenarios to the year 2000 for Estonia

In the independent Estonia an energy crisis is forthcoming or partly already existing. In the past fuels from other republics of the former Soviet Union were distributed continuously by nominal prices. Now the situation has changed and Estonia is entering market economy and the fuel import must be paid in hard currency to market prices. The bottom of the economic decline is supposed to be reached around the year 1995, after which a stabilization and recovering is expected to follow. The fuel consumption is estimated to decrease by 20 - 30 percent in the scenarios considered by the year 2000. Oil-shale is the most important fuel and almost the sole domestic fuel in Estonia. Oil-shale is a problematic fuel with low calorific value, high ash content implying large environmental problems. In the scenarios considered it has been supposed that no new oil-shale mines will be opened and the consumption of oil-shale will decrease. From all fuels, only the use of natural gas is assumed to increase clearly. The given fuel consumption scenarios are favorable from the environmental point of view. All calculated emissions (SO2, NOx and CO2) are decreasing. Without ordinary emission reduction measures, the sulphur emissions are estimated to decrease over 30 percent from the emission level of the year 1980 by the year 2000. If the assumed emission reduction plans for the oil-shale plants will be realized, the sulphur emissions will decrease over 60 percent. Because there are no reduction plans for nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide, the decline in emissions of these substances is due to the decreasing energy production. The emissions of nitrogen oxides is estimated to decrease by 10 - 20 percent compared to the year 1987 and the carbon dioxide emissions by 20 - 30 percent compared to the year 1990.