Enhanced Bayesian THERP: Experiences from HRA method evaluation

Kent Bladh, Jan-Erik Holmberg, Johanna Oxstrand, Pekka Pyy

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

Abstract

The Enhanced Bayesian THERP (Technique for Human Reliability Analysis) method has been subject to evaluation within the framework of the “International HRA Empirical Study” using simulator data in order to better know its characteristics from a more international perspective. This paper gives an overview of the Enhanced Bayesian THERP method with major experiences from predictive analyses within the International HRA Empirical Study. Some possible reasons behind more or less successful predictions compared to experimental results will be elicited. Based on lessons learnt, strengths and potential weaknesses of the method will be discussed. Finally, a number of possible improvement areas have been identified for consideration in future development of the method.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationReliability, Risk and Safety
Subtitle of host publicationBack to the Future
Place of PublicationLondon
PublisherTaylor & Francis
ISBN (Print)978-0-415-60427-7
Publication statusPublished - 2010
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
EventEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2010 - Rhodes, Greece
Duration: 5 Sep 20109 Sep 2010

Conference

ConferenceEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2010
Abbreviated titleESREL 2010
CountryGreece
CityRhodes
Period5/09/109/09/10

Fingerprint

Reliability analysis
Simulators

Keywords

  • Human reliability analysis
  • expert judgment
  • probabilistic safety assessment
  • simulator

Cite this

Bladh, K., Holmberg, J-E., Oxstrand, J., & Pyy, P. (2010). Enhanced Bayesian THERP: Experiences from HRA method evaluation. In Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future [Paper 331] London: Taylor & Francis.
Bladh, Kent ; Holmberg, Jan-Erik ; Oxstrand, Johanna ; Pyy, Pekka. / Enhanced Bayesian THERP : Experiences from HRA method evaluation. Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future. London : Taylor & Francis, 2010.
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Bladh, K, Holmberg, J-E, Oxstrand, J & Pyy, P 2010, Enhanced Bayesian THERP: Experiences from HRA method evaluation. in Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future., Paper 331, Taylor & Francis, London, European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2010, Rhodes, Greece, 5/09/10.

Enhanced Bayesian THERP : Experiences from HRA method evaluation. / Bladh, Kent; Holmberg, Jan-Erik; Oxstrand, Johanna; Pyy, Pekka.

Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future. London : Taylor & Francis, 2010. Paper 331.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

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Bladh K, Holmberg J-E, Oxstrand J, Pyy P. Enhanced Bayesian THERP: Experiences from HRA method evaluation. In Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future. London: Taylor & Francis. 2010. Paper 331