Enhanced Bayesian THERP

Lessons learnt from HRA benchmarking

Jan-Erik Holmberg, Kent Bladh, Johanna Oxtrand, Pekka Pyy

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Enhanced Bayesian THERP (Technique for Human Reliability Analysis) method uses as its basis the time-reliability curve introduced in the Swain’s human reliability analysis (HRA) handbook. It differs from the Swain's Handbook via a transparent adjustment of the time-dependent human error probabilities by use of five performance shaping factors (PSFs): (1) support from procedures, (2) support from training, (3) feedback from process, (4) need for co-ordination and communication, (5) mental load, decision burden. In order to better know the characteristics of the Enhanced Bayesian THERP from a more international perspective, the method has been subject to evaluation within the framework of the international “HRA Methods Empirical Study Using Simulator Data”. Without knowledge of the crews’ performances, several HRA analysis teams from different countries, using different methods, performed predictive analyses of four scenarios. This paper gives an overview of the method with major findings from the benchmarking. The empirical comparison gives confidence that the time reliability curve is a feasible and cost effective method to estimate human error probabilities when the time window is well defined and relatively short. The comparison of empirical observations with predictions was found as a useful exercise to identify areas of improvements in the HRA method.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of PSAM 10
Subtitle of host publicationInternational Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference, 7–11 June 2010, Seattle, Washington, USA
PublisherInternational Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM
Pages1281-1292
ISBN (Print)978-1-4507-1556-0
Publication statusPublished - 2010
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
Event10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference, PSAM 10 - Seattle, United States
Duration: 7 Jun 201011 Jun 2010

Publication series

Name
PublisherInternational Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, IAPSAM
Volume2

Conference

Conference10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference, PSAM 10
Abbreviated titlePSAM 10
CountryUnited States
CitySeattle
Period7/06/1011/06/10

Fingerprint

reliability analysis
benchmarking
method
simulator
communication
prediction
cost

Keywords

  • Human reliability analysis
  • human performance
  • simulator study
  • nuclear power plant safety

Cite this

Holmberg, J-E., Bladh, K., Oxtrand, J., & Pyy, P. (2010). Enhanced Bayesian THERP: Lessons learnt from HRA benchmarking. In Proceedings of PSAM 10: International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference, 7–11 June 2010, Seattle, Washington, USA (pp. 1281-1292). [52] International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM.
Holmberg, Jan-Erik ; Bladh, Kent ; Oxtrand, Johanna ; Pyy, Pekka. / Enhanced Bayesian THERP : Lessons learnt from HRA benchmarking. Proceedings of PSAM 10: International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference, 7–11 June 2010, Seattle, Washington, USA. International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM, 2010. pp. 1281-1292
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abstract = "The Enhanced Bayesian THERP (Technique for Human Reliability Analysis) method uses as its basis the time-reliability curve introduced in the Swain’s human reliability analysis (HRA) handbook. It differs from the Swain's Handbook via a transparent adjustment of the time-dependent human error probabilities by use of five performance shaping factors (PSFs): (1) support from procedures, (2) support from training, (3) feedback from process, (4) need for co-ordination and communication, (5) mental load, decision burden. In order to better know the characteristics of the Enhanced Bayesian THERP from a more international perspective, the method has been subject to evaluation within the framework of the international “HRA Methods Empirical Study Using Simulator Data”. Without knowledge of the crews’ performances, several HRA analysis teams from different countries, using different methods, performed predictive analyses of four scenarios. This paper gives an overview of the method with major findings from the benchmarking. The empirical comparison gives confidence that the time reliability curve is a feasible and cost effective method to estimate human error probabilities when the time window is well defined and relatively short. The comparison of empirical observations with predictions was found as a useful exercise to identify areas of improvements in the HRA method.",
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Holmberg, J-E, Bladh, K, Oxtrand, J & Pyy, P 2010, Enhanced Bayesian THERP: Lessons learnt from HRA benchmarking. in Proceedings of PSAM 10: International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference, 7–11 June 2010, Seattle, Washington, USA., 52, International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM, pp. 1281-1292, 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference, PSAM 10, Seattle, United States, 7/06/10.

Enhanced Bayesian THERP : Lessons learnt from HRA benchmarking. / Holmberg, Jan-Erik; Bladh, Kent; Oxtrand, Johanna; Pyy, Pekka.

Proceedings of PSAM 10: International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference, 7–11 June 2010, Seattle, Washington, USA. International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM, 2010. p. 1281-1292 52.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

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AB - The Enhanced Bayesian THERP (Technique for Human Reliability Analysis) method uses as its basis the time-reliability curve introduced in the Swain’s human reliability analysis (HRA) handbook. It differs from the Swain's Handbook via a transparent adjustment of the time-dependent human error probabilities by use of five performance shaping factors (PSFs): (1) support from procedures, (2) support from training, (3) feedback from process, (4) need for co-ordination and communication, (5) mental load, decision burden. In order to better know the characteristics of the Enhanced Bayesian THERP from a more international perspective, the method has been subject to evaluation within the framework of the international “HRA Methods Empirical Study Using Simulator Data”. Without knowledge of the crews’ performances, several HRA analysis teams from different countries, using different methods, performed predictive analyses of four scenarios. This paper gives an overview of the method with major findings from the benchmarking. The empirical comparison gives confidence that the time reliability curve is a feasible and cost effective method to estimate human error probabilities when the time window is well defined and relatively short. The comparison of empirical observations with predictions was found as a useful exercise to identify areas of improvements in the HRA method.

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Holmberg J-E, Bladh K, Oxtrand J, Pyy P. Enhanced Bayesian THERP: Lessons learnt from HRA benchmarking. In Proceedings of PSAM 10: International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference, 7–11 June 2010, Seattle, Washington, USA. International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM. 2010. p. 1281-1292. 52