Abstract
The paper presents an approach to the treatment and analysis of
long-range transport and dispersion model forecasts. Long-range is
intended here as the space scale of the order of few thousands of
kilometers known also as continental scale. The method is called
multi-model ensemble dispersion and is based on the simultaneous
analysis of several model simulations by means of ad-hoc statistical
treatments and parameters. The models considered in this study are
operational long-range transport and dispersion models used to support
decision making in various countries in case of accidental releases of
harmful volatile substances, in particular radionuclides to the
atmosphere. The ensemble dispersion approach and indicators provide a
way to reduce several model results to few concise representations that
include an estimate of the models’ agreement in predicting a specific
scenario. The parameters proposed are particularly suited for long-range
transport and dispersion models although they can also be applied to
short-range dispersion and weather fields.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 4607 - 4617 |
Number of pages | 11 |
Journal | Atmospheric Environment |
Volume | 38 |
Issue number | 28 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2004 |
MoE publication type | A1 Journal article-refereed |
Keywords
- Long-range transport and dispersion
- Multi-model ensemble dispersion forecast and analysis