Abstract
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 4607 - 4617 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Atmospheric Environment |
| Volume | 38 |
| Issue number | 28 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2004 |
| MoE publication type | A1 Journal article-refereed |
Fingerprint
Keywords
- Long-range transport and dispersion
- Multi-model ensemble dispersion forecast and analysis
Cite this
}
Ensemble dispersion forecasting : Part I: concept, approach and indicators. / Galmarini, S. (Corresponding Author); Bianconi, R.; Klug, W.; Ilvonen, Mikko; et al.
In: Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 38, No. 28, 2004, p. 4607 - 4617.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Ensemble dispersion forecasting
T2 - Part I: concept, approach and indicators
AU - Galmarini, S.
AU - Bianconi, R.
AU - Klug, W.
AU - Ilvonen, Mikko
AU - et al., null
PY - 2004
Y1 - 2004
N2 - The paper presents an approach to the treatment and analysis of long-range transport and dispersion model forecasts. Long-range is intended here as the space scale of the order of few thousands of kilometers known also as continental scale. The method is called multi-model ensemble dispersion and is based on the simultaneous analysis of several model simulations by means of ad-hoc statistical treatments and parameters. The models considered in this study are operational long-range transport and dispersion models used to support decision making in various countries in case of accidental releases of harmful volatile substances, in particular radionuclides to the atmosphere. The ensemble dispersion approach and indicators provide a way to reduce several model results to few concise representations that include an estimate of the models’ agreement in predicting a specific scenario. The parameters proposed are particularly suited for long-range transport and dispersion models although they can also be applied to short-range dispersion and weather fields.
AB - The paper presents an approach to the treatment and analysis of long-range transport and dispersion model forecasts. Long-range is intended here as the space scale of the order of few thousands of kilometers known also as continental scale. The method is called multi-model ensemble dispersion and is based on the simultaneous analysis of several model simulations by means of ad-hoc statistical treatments and parameters. The models considered in this study are operational long-range transport and dispersion models used to support decision making in various countries in case of accidental releases of harmful volatile substances, in particular radionuclides to the atmosphere. The ensemble dispersion approach and indicators provide a way to reduce several model results to few concise representations that include an estimate of the models’ agreement in predicting a specific scenario. The parameters proposed are particularly suited for long-range transport and dispersion models although they can also be applied to short-range dispersion and weather fields.
KW - Long-range transport and dispersion
KW - Multi-model ensemble dispersion forecast and analysis
U2 - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.05.030
DO - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.05.030
M3 - Article
VL - 38
SP - 4607
EP - 4617
JO - Atmospheric Environment
JF - Atmospheric Environment
SN - 1352-2310
IS - 28
ER -