Ensemble dispersion forecasting

Part I: concept, approach and indicators

S. Galmarini (Corresponding Author), R. Bianconi, W. Klug, Mikko Ilvonen, et al.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

113 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The paper presents an approach to the treatment and analysis of long-range transport and dispersion model forecasts. Long-range is intended here as the space scale of the order of few thousands of kilometers known also as continental scale. The method is called multi-model ensemble dispersion and is based on the simultaneous analysis of several model simulations by means of ad-hoc statistical treatments and parameters. The models considered in this study are operational long-range transport and dispersion models used to support decision making in various countries in case of accidental releases of harmful volatile substances, in particular radionuclides to the atmosphere. The ensemble dispersion approach and indicators provide a way to reduce several model results to few concise representations that include an estimate of the models’ agreement in predicting a specific scenario. The parameters proposed are particularly suited for long-range transport and dispersion models although they can also be applied to short-range dispersion and weather fields.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4607 - 4617
Number of pages11
JournalAtmospheric Environment
Volume38
Issue number28
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2004
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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long range transport
volatile substance
indicator
radionuclide
weather
atmosphere
simulation
parameter
analysis

Keywords

  • Long-range transport and dispersion
  • Multi-model ensemble dispersion forecast and analysis

Cite this

Galmarini, S. ; Bianconi, R. ; Klug, W. ; Ilvonen, Mikko ; et al. / Ensemble dispersion forecasting : Part I: concept, approach and indicators. In: Atmospheric Environment. 2004 ; Vol. 38, No. 28. pp. 4607 - 4617.
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Ensemble dispersion forecasting : Part I: concept, approach and indicators. / Galmarini, S. (Corresponding Author); Bianconi, R.; Klug, W.; Ilvonen, Mikko; et al.

In: Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 38, No. 28, 2004, p. 4607 - 4617.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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