TY - BOOK
T1 - Escaping Path Dependence - Essays on Foresight and Environmental Management
AU - Könnölä, Totti
PY - 2006
Y1 - 2006
N2 - The dissertation examines linkages between foresight,
innovation and environmental management and policy to
escape undesirable path dependencies at the different
levels of innovation systems, especially with the means
of foresight. The dissertation is characterized as action
research that applies literature reviews, semi-structured
interviews, direct observations, Internet-based group
support systems, decision analysis, trend analysis and
computer assisted workshops within case studies and
empirically grounded theory-building.
The dissertation consists of six articles and the
summary. The first article deals with responsiveness in
the management of foresight activities. The second
article studies possible ways to escape
techno-institutional path dependencies by combining
methods used in foresight activities and drafting
environmental voluntary agreements. The third article
applies this approach to the analysis of a hydrogen
energy foresight. The fourth article examines how
environmental management systems may strengthen path
dependencies. The fifth article develops and applies a
new foresight method RPM Screening, which is also applied
in the sixth article in connection with a European
coordination tool.
The implications of the mechanisms of path dependence on
foresight objectives are identified as follows: (i)
improved systems understanding calls for attention to
continuous and discontinuous changes, which can be
facilitated by diversity considerations, (ii) enhanced
networking requires not only strengthening existing
networks but also restructuring or even destruction of
possible lock-in conditions by a redefinition of
stakeholder roles and (iii) strengthened innovation
activities necessitate fostering prospective innovation
ideas, rivaling coalitions and the development of new
technological and institutional arrangements. The results
of this dissertation suggest extending the locus of
foresight processes closer to decision-making and
conducting them in connection with other
coordination-oriented policy tools to address also
institutional arrangements for discontinuous systemic
changes. Whereas the dissertation identifies and responds
to these challenges by developing responsive and modular
foresight methods, further policy experimentation is
recommended to support policy learning and the collection
of further evidence for the findings.
AB - The dissertation examines linkages between foresight,
innovation and environmental management and policy to
escape undesirable path dependencies at the different
levels of innovation systems, especially with the means
of foresight. The dissertation is characterized as action
research that applies literature reviews, semi-structured
interviews, direct observations, Internet-based group
support systems, decision analysis, trend analysis and
computer assisted workshops within case studies and
empirically grounded theory-building.
The dissertation consists of six articles and the
summary. The first article deals with responsiveness in
the management of foresight activities. The second
article studies possible ways to escape
techno-institutional path dependencies by combining
methods used in foresight activities and drafting
environmental voluntary agreements. The third article
applies this approach to the analysis of a hydrogen
energy foresight. The fourth article examines how
environmental management systems may strengthen path
dependencies. The fifth article develops and applies a
new foresight method RPM Screening, which is also applied
in the sixth article in connection with a European
coordination tool.
The implications of the mechanisms of path dependence on
foresight objectives are identified as follows: (i)
improved systems understanding calls for attention to
continuous and discontinuous changes, which can be
facilitated by diversity considerations, (ii) enhanced
networking requires not only strengthening existing
networks but also restructuring or even destruction of
possible lock-in conditions by a redefinition of
stakeholder roles and (iii) strengthened innovation
activities necessitate fostering prospective innovation
ideas, rivaling coalitions and the development of new
technological and institutional arrangements. The results
of this dissertation suggest extending the locus of
foresight processes closer to decision-making and
conducting them in connection with other
coordination-oriented policy tools to address also
institutional arrangements for discontinuous systemic
changes. Whereas the dissertation identifies and responds
to these challenges by developing responsive and modular
foresight methods, further policy experimentation is
recommended to support policy learning and the collection
of further evidence for the findings.
KW - foresight
KW - environmental management
KW - group decision-making
KW - innovation policy
KW - path dependence
M3 - Report
SN - 951-22-8207-0
T3 - Helsinki University of Technology: Systems Analysis Laboratory. A: Research Reports
BT - Escaping Path Dependence - Essays on Foresight and Environmental Management
PB - Helsinki University of Technology
CY - Espoo
ER -