Estimating ship collision avoidance probabilities

Sanna Sonninen, Tony Rosqvist, Tapio Nyman, Risto Tuominen

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review


    Mathematical approaches and tools used to predict collision frequencies of ships on a passage typically divide prediction into two separate likelihood (probability) terms. The first term represents the frequency of ship encounters with obstacles, either other ships or fixed structures, where the encounters lead to collision if no evasive action is taken. The second term represents the general ability of ships to take correct evasive actions to avoid the imminent collision. In multi-vessel encounter situations, in particular, the evasive actions may be complex interdependent actions by the involved ships. The paper introduces an approach for collision risk assessment based on Event Tree - modelling. The Event Tree - model depicts situation awareness, and subsequent actions of any two vessels in a multi-vessel encounter situation allowing assessment and comparison of risk control options. The estimation of the conditional probabilities of the Event Tree - model is specific to the encounter type which is defined according to the encounter geometries of the two vessels interacting to avoid collision. The probabilities can be estimated partly on existing track records of incidents and collisions, partly on dynamic vessel management simulation models.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings ISIS 2004, International Symposium Information Ships
    PublisherDeutsche Gesellschaft für Ortung und Navigation
    Publication statusPublished - 2004
    MoE publication typeNot Eligible
    EventInternational Symposium Information on Ships, ISIS 2004 - Hamburg, Germany
    Duration: 23 Sept 200424 Sept 2004


    ConferenceInternational Symposium Information on Ships, ISIS 2004


    • ships


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