Estimating the risk of traffic incidents using causal analysis

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Abstract

Traffic management centres aim to keep the traffic flowing regardless of traffic disturbances. This paper presents a new method for quantitative incident analysis via causality and observations. It is applied to estimate the risk ofvehicular traffic tunnel closures in the city of Tampere, Finland, where the tunnel on a national main road bypasses the city centre. A tunnel closure rapidly causes traffic jams on alternative routes in the city. Also, traffic incidents near the tunnel may propagate and cause tunnel closures. We restrict our analyses to the westbound direction of the traffic on the main road. We combine various open data sources providing information about traffic and driving conditions. The analysis is based on a probabilistic and statistical framework augmented with causal reasoning. We have identified several event paths from congestion after the tunnel to the tunnel closing, as well as approximate capacity limits near selected critical locations.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of TRA2020, the 8th Transport Research Arena
Subtitle of host publicationRethinking transport – towards clean and inclusive mobility
PublisherLiikenne- ja viestintävirasto Traficom
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)978-952-311-484-5
Publication statusPublished - 12 Mar 2020
Event8th Transport Research Arena, TRA 2020 - Conference cancelled - Helsinki, Finland
Duration: 27 Apr 202030 Apr 2020
https://traconference.eu/overview/

Publication series

SeriesTraficom Research Reports
Number7/2020
ISSN2660-8781

Conference

Conference8th Transport Research Arena, TRA 2020 - Conference cancelled
Abbreviated titleTRA 2020
CountryFinland
CityHelsinki
Period27/04/2030/04/20
Internet address

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    Kilpi, J., Scholliers, J., Koskinen, S., & Kuusela, P. (2020). Estimating the risk of traffic incidents using causal analysis. In Proceedings of TRA2020, the 8th Transport Research Arena: Rethinking transport – towards clean and inclusive mobility Liikenne- ja viestintävirasto Traficom. Traficom Research Reports, No. 7/2020