Abstract
The safety evaluation of a given road is frequently based only on
accidents happened during recent years.
However, due to random variation and rareness of accidents, accident history
provides an unreliable
estimate of the expected number of accidents in the future. This is even more
true regarding evaluation of
fatalities. Consequently, if the current safety situation is inadequately
evaluated, one can nothing but fail in
evaluating the effects of road safety improvements. Similar problems concern
so-called black spots with
relatively small number of accidents during few last years.
The most reliable estimate of the current road safety situation on a given
road can be received using
Empirical Bayesian method. In Finland an evaluation programme entitled TARVA
using that method was
created in 1993 and it has been in constant use ever since. First, TARVA
combines information about
accident history with the accident model information to evaluate current
safety situation. Secondly, effect
coefficients are used to evaluate the safety impacts due to one or several
simultaneous improvements.
Thirdly, the severity of accidents is taken into consideration to evaluate the
effects on fatalities. The
evaluations can be done easily on the whole national road network.
Original language | Finnish |
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Number of pages | 8 |
Publication status | Published - 2009 |
MoE publication type | Not Eligible |
Event | 4th IRTAD Conference - Seoul, Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Duration: 16 Sept 2009 → 17 Sept 2009 |
Conference
Conference | 4th IRTAD Conference |
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Country/Territory | Korea, Democratic People's Republic of |
City | Seoul |
Period | 16/09/09 → 17/09/09 |