Abstract
When considering the implementation of a novel risk-control option, the estimation of its possible effects often relies on expert elicitation. This article presents an expert-knowledge-based preliminary assessment of how the deployment of Enhanced Navigation Support Information navigation service would affect the ship collisions and groundings in the Gulf of Finland. Experts probabilistically assess the service's direct effects on various factors, which are then utilized in collision and grounding probability Bayesian network models. The results indicate that implementing the Enhanced Navigation Support Information service could decrease the number of accidents. However, a comparison of the model outcomes to the experts' qualitative opinions reveals some discrepancies, which suggest that the elicitation procedure or the applied models might require further improvement. Nevertheless, with the proposed Bayesian approach, the model can be updated and uncertainties in the estimates reduced after more evidences are available later from longer and wider use of the service.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 19-28 |
Number of pages | 10 |
Journal | Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability |
Volume | 228 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Feb 2014 |
MoE publication type | A1 Journal article-refereed |
Funding
This study was conducted as a part of the projects ‘Competitive Advantage by Safety’ (CAFE), ‘Minimizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies’ (MIMIC) and ‘EfficienSea – Efficient, Safe and Sustainable Traffic at Sea’. The financing of the aforementioned projects come from the European Union – European Regional Development Fund – through the Regional Council of Päijät-Häme and the Central Baltic INTERREG IV A Programme 2007–2013, City of Kotka, Finnish Shipowners’ Association and Kotka Maritime Research Centre corporate group: Aker Arctic Technology, Inc., Port of HaminaKotka, Kotka-Hamina Regional Development Company, Centre for Economic Development, Port of Helsinki, Kristina Cruises Ltd, Meriaura Ltd and Transport and the Environment of Southwest Finland.
Keywords
- accident probability
- Bayesian networks
- expert elicitation
- Ship collision and grounding
- the Gulf of Finland
- Vessel Traffic Service