Expert elicitation of a navigation service implementation effects on ship groundings and collisions in the Gulf of Finland

Maria Hänninen, Arsham Mazaheri, Pentti Kujala, Jakub Montewka, Pekka Laaksonen, Maija Salmiovirta, Mikko Klang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

30 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

When considering the implementation of a novel risk-control option, the estimation of its possible effects often relies on expert elicitation. This article presents an expert-knowledge-based preliminary assessment of how the deployment of Enhanced Navigation Support Information navigation service would affect the ship collisions and groundings in the Gulf of Finland. Experts probabilistically assess the service's direct effects on various factors, which are then utilized in collision and grounding probability Bayesian network models. The results indicate that implementing the Enhanced Navigation Support Information service could decrease the number of accidents. However, a comparison of the model outcomes to the experts' qualitative opinions reveals some discrepancies, which suggest that the elicitation procedure or the applied models might require further improvement. Nevertheless, with the proposed Bayesian approach, the model can be updated and uncertainties in the estimates reduced after more evidences are available later from longer and wider use of the service.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)19-28
Number of pages10
JournalProceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability
Volume228
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2014
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • accident probability
  • Bayesian networks
  • expert elicitation
  • Ship collision and grounding
  • the Gulf of Finland
  • Vessel Traffic Service

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