Finnish experiments on level 3 PRA

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Level 3 probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) analyses the consequences that radioactive release from a nuclear power plant can have on population and environment. Two level 3 case studies are presented in the paper. The first study experimented with event tree modelling on level 3 PRA using Fukushima accident as the case. This study alternated history so that it was assumed that there was no tsunami, i.e. people near Fukushima had not died or been evacuated. Weather was treated probabilistically instead of using the actual weather from the time of the accident. Atmospheric dispersion and dose calculations were performed using ARANO software, and the calculated population doses were incorporated into the event tree model. The event tree was constructed using FinPSA level 2 software, which enables uncertainty analysis and parametric modelling. The second case study examined the integration of PRA levels 2 and 3 using the results from a level 2 dynamic containment event tree model as a basis. It is not clear what numbers from level 2 should be used in level 3 because uncertainty distributions in level 2 results are wide. Therefore, a moderately large number of source term scenarios were analysed.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of PSAM 13
PublisherInternational Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM
Publication statusPublished - 2016
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
Event13th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management - Sheraton Grande Walkerhill, Seoul, Korea, Republic of
Duration: 2 Oct 20167 Oct 2016
Conference number: 13

Conference

Conference13th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management
Abbreviated titlePSAM 13
CountryKorea, Republic of
CitySeoul
Period2/10/167/10/16

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Risk analysis
Accidents
Tsunamis
Uncertainty analysis
Experiments
Nuclear power plants
Dosimetry

Keywords

  • probabilistic risk analysis
  • radioactive release
  • consequence analysis

Cite this

Tyrväinen, T., Karanta, I., & Rossi, J. (2016). Finnish experiments on level 3 PRA. In Proceedings of PSAM 13 International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM.
Tyrväinen, Tero ; Karanta, Ilkka ; Rossi, Jukka. / Finnish experiments on level 3 PRA. Proceedings of PSAM 13. International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM, 2016.
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Tyrväinen, T, Karanta, I & Rossi, J 2016, Finnish experiments on level 3 PRA. in Proceedings of PSAM 13. International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM, 13th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, Seoul, Korea, Republic of, 2/10/16.

Finnish experiments on level 3 PRA. / Tyrväinen, Tero; Karanta, Ilkka; Rossi, Jukka.

Proceedings of PSAM 13. International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM, 2016.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

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AB - Level 3 probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) analyses the consequences that radioactive release from a nuclear power plant can have on population and environment. Two level 3 case studies are presented in the paper. The first study experimented with event tree modelling on level 3 PRA using Fukushima accident as the case. This study alternated history so that it was assumed that there was no tsunami, i.e. people near Fukushima had not died or been evacuated. Weather was treated probabilistically instead of using the actual weather from the time of the accident. Atmospheric dispersion and dose calculations were performed using ARANO software, and the calculated population doses were incorporated into the event tree model. The event tree was constructed using FinPSA level 2 software, which enables uncertainty analysis and parametric modelling. The second case study examined the integration of PRA levels 2 and 3 using the results from a level 2 dynamic containment event tree model as a basis. It is not clear what numbers from level 2 should be used in level 3 because uncertainty distributions in level 2 results are wide. Therefore, a moderately large number of source term scenarios were analysed.

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Tyrväinen T, Karanta I, Rossi J. Finnish experiments on level 3 PRA. In Proceedings of PSAM 13. International Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management IAPSAM. 2016