Forecasting the Generation of Plastic Packaging Waste Until 2030: Case Finland

Most sources point towards a continuing increase in the use of plastics products and thus increased need to manage the end-of-life phase generation of waste. The statement was backed up by most literature sources and also the feedback in the welphi and survey monkey studies, which were directed to experts in plastics production and waste management.

Plastic packaging waste generated in Finnish households and the (public) service sector, both of which are largely collected by municipal waste organisations, was estimated to ca. 112 kton in 2020. The amount was estimated to increase ca. 35% by 2030. The same growth rate was used for plastic packaging waste generated by households, using 102 kton as the baseline in 2020.

Polyethene and polypropylene are the most used polymers in the packaging industry. The share of PE is over a third of all packaging while PP stands for ca a quarter. HDPE and PP are also forecasted to increase their shares in the future, while the use of PVC will have less importance in the future. While the demand for plastic packaging will continue to grow, the packages are getting lighter and thinner. Package design is driven by functionality and cost, and to an increasing extent sustainability. Important drivers for packaging design relate to large brands’ commitments to sustainability and new directives or regulations relating to plastics waste management, single use plastics and local waste collection systems. The first mentioned is largely driven by consumer behaviour and end users’ preferences.