The future electricity demand and demand trends in
Finland and in the Nordic countries (excluding Iceland)
are the main focus of this report. The electricity demand
per capita is high on a European and even on a global
scale in Finland, Sweden and Norway. One reason is the
high share of electric heating combined with a cold
climate; another reason is the relatively low price level
of electricity which has led to extensive electricity
intensive industry. The estimated Nordic business as
usual (BAU) demand for year 2020 is 435 TWh and for year
2030 454 TWh.
EU's recent policy decisions regarding increased use of
renewables, greenhouse gas emission reductions and
improved energy efficiency will have an impact on the
electricity system. The basic demand is expected to
decrease compared to the BAU scenario. The future trends
do not only affect annual consumption, but also the load
curves and system peak load behaviours. Using consumer
type load models and sectorwise annual energy estimates,
we model the Nordic load curves for each country for the
years 2020 and 2030.
EU 20-20-20 policies will change how electricity is used.
The authors of this report see industrial electricity
demand, electric heating and heat pumps, and electric
vehicles as the most important individual factors that
may affect electricity demand in the future, and even
increase it considerably. The impacts of large scale
penetration of the latter two are further analysed with
special regard to effect on system peak load. The
analysis was done using what-if cases.
The future of oil heating is under the spotlight
especially in Finland according to the long-term climate
and energy strategy of the Ministry of Employment and the
Economy. If 200 000 of the oil heated detached houses are
converted to heat pumps, then the electricity consumption
would rise with more than 2 TWh. At the same time the
peak load will rise with 1100 MW. On the other hand, if a
similar chunk of direct electric heated houses get heat
pumps, it will more than compensate for the rise in
consumption. But not for the rise in peak load as there
will still remain a net increase of 700 MW.
The deployment of electric vehicles (EV) and their effect
on the electricity power system was studied. The results
indicate that a small amount of EVs (5% to 10% market
share) will increase electricity demand by a negligible
amount, less than 0.5-1 % in Finland. If half of all
personal vehicles were EVs, a realistic possibility by
2030, the electricity consumption would rise in Finland
by 3 TWh and in the Nordic countries by 15 TWh. However,
it will not require any extraordinary changes to the
system peak load management if smart distribution network
charging is selected as the preferred charging method.
Our results show an increase in the system peak load of
1000 MW on the Nordic level.
Large scale penetration of both heat pumps and electric
vehicles on a Nordic level are studied with two case
studies, case A being a worst case scenario with regard
to load impact and case B a more realistic alternative.
In case B also electric heated houses get heat pumps, not
only oil heated houses as in case A. Both cases show a
substantial (3.000-4.000 MW) peak load increase at -25°C,
whereas peak load increase is quite small for case B at
-10°C. A simultaneous cold spell in the Nordic countries
is in our opinion better described by -10°C than by
-25°C, thus EVs and heat pumps might not affect the peak
capacity requirements in the Nordic countries as
adversely as beforehand was anticipated.
Considering all demand issues presented in this report,
it is clear that electricity is a high value source of
energy offering possibilities to overall energy savings
and an increased share of renewables. This will further
boost the electrification of the society.
|Place of Publication||Espoo|
|Publisher||VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland|
|Number of pages||79|
|Publication status||Published - 2009|
|MoE publication type||D4 Published development or research report or study|
|Series||VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes|
- electricity demand
- load curves
- peak load
- electric vehicle
- heat pump