Future-oriented impact assessment as a strategic management approach for public R&D programmes

Impact assessment related to research and development activities is currently facing important challenges. First, the nature of innovation is changing towards systemic and open models which have not properly been taken into account in current evaluation practices. Second, innovation policy is transforming into an expanding, horizontal and network-based policy field which calls for broader and more diversified approaches in the evaluation of its impacts. Third, current evaluation practices tend to be dominated by backward-looking and legitimising approaches while there is less connections to forward-looking and learning-oriented perspectives in evaluation. In particular, the increasingly fast pace of societal change and technological development calls for closer linkages between impact assessment and forward-looking activities in the management of public R&D programmes. This paper introduces and develops a systemic and future-oriented evaluation approach that can be applied in the strategic management of public R&D programmes and organisations. The approach is an integrating method designed to meet the challenges of the changing innovation environment and evaluation standards. Future-oriented impact assessment approach integrates different R&D evaluation methods, particular forward-looking activities (e.g. technology roadmapping) and tools to enhance interaction and common learning under a single framework in order to provide versatile information to support the steering and decision-making of the R&D-instrument in question. The paper is based on a broad research and development work where the presented approach has been theoretically developed and empirically piloted. The approach has been developed in the context of three technology and innovation programmes of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation. The paper is hoped to benefit R&D evaluation researchers, as well as, programme managers and R&D evaluation practitioners.