Future transport systems: long-term visions and socio-technical transitions

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Long-term, system-level foresight is needed when grand challenges are addressed in the transport sector. This paper explores how socio-technical transitions can be anticipated and taken into account in strategic transport planning. Techniques to integrate long-term foresight and understanding of socio-technical change in the transport system to support long-term transport policy targets are introduced. The proposed approach extends and combines transport system vision building to analysis of system-level changes on a three-level framework. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of socio-technical transitions. The case is demonstrated with a vision of a safe and secure Finnish transport system in 2100. First, a consistent transport system vision was created with transport experts and authorities using a structured vision building process. Second, key topics involved in the transition from the existing socio-technical system to the envisioned future were analysed using the three-level framework. The demonstration proved successful, and it has contributed to the understanding of importance of the shared long-term perspective in transport system decision-making and strategic planning. It has also generated wider discussion on transport system visions, desired futures paths as well as measures and changes required among the Finnish transport systems stakeholders
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)343 - 354
JournalEuropean Transport Research Review
Volume6
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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Strategic planning
transport system
Demonstrations
Decision making
Planning
strategic planning
stakeholder
expert
decision making
planning

Keywords

  • Foresight
  • socio-technical change
  • transport system
  • vision

Cite this

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title = "Future transport systems: long-term visions and socio-technical transitions",
abstract = "Long-term, system-level foresight is needed when grand challenges are addressed in the transport sector. This paper explores how socio-technical transitions can be anticipated and taken into account in strategic transport planning. Techniques to integrate long-term foresight and understanding of socio-technical change in the transport system to support long-term transport policy targets are introduced. The proposed approach extends and combines transport system vision building to analysis of system-level changes on a three-level framework. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of socio-technical transitions. The case is demonstrated with a vision of a safe and secure Finnish transport system in 2100. First, a consistent transport system vision was created with transport experts and authorities using a structured vision building process. Second, key topics involved in the transition from the existing socio-technical system to the envisioned future were analysed using the three-level framework. The demonstration proved successful, and it has contributed to the understanding of importance of the shared long-term perspective in transport system decision-making and strategic planning. It has also generated wider discussion on transport system visions, desired futures paths as well as measures and changes required among the Finnish transport systems stakeholders",
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Future transport systems: long-term visions and socio-technical transitions. / Auvinen, Heidi; Tuominen, Anu.

In: European Transport Research Review, Vol. 6, No. 3, 2014, p. 343 - 354.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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AU - Tuominen, Anu

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AB - Long-term, system-level foresight is needed when grand challenges are addressed in the transport sector. This paper explores how socio-technical transitions can be anticipated and taken into account in strategic transport planning. Techniques to integrate long-term foresight and understanding of socio-technical change in the transport system to support long-term transport policy targets are introduced. The proposed approach extends and combines transport system vision building to analysis of system-level changes on a three-level framework. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of socio-technical transitions. The case is demonstrated with a vision of a safe and secure Finnish transport system in 2100. First, a consistent transport system vision was created with transport experts and authorities using a structured vision building process. Second, key topics involved in the transition from the existing socio-technical system to the envisioned future were analysed using the three-level framework. The demonstration proved successful, and it has contributed to the understanding of importance of the shared long-term perspective in transport system decision-making and strategic planning. It has also generated wider discussion on transport system visions, desired futures paths as well as measures and changes required among the Finnish transport systems stakeholders

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