Future transport systems: long-term visions and socio-technical transitions

Heidi Auvinen, Anu Tuominen

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    29 Citations (Scopus)


    Long-term, system-level foresight is needed when grand challenges are addressed in the transport sector. This paper explores how socio-technical transitions can be anticipated and taken into account in strategic transport planning. Techniques to integrate long-term foresight and understanding of socio-technical change in the transport system to support long-term transport policy targets are introduced. The proposed approach extends and combines transport system vision building to analysis of system-level changes on a three-level framework. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of socio-technical transitions. The case is demonstrated with a vision of a safe and secure Finnish transport system in 2100. First, a consistent transport system vision was created with transport experts and authorities using a structured vision building process. Second, key topics involved in the transition from the existing socio-technical system to the envisioned future were analysed using the three-level framework. The demonstration proved successful, and it has contributed to the understanding of importance of the shared long-term perspective in transport system decision-making and strategic planning. It has also generated wider discussion on transport system visions, desired futures paths as well as measures and changes required among the Finnish transport systems stakeholders
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)343 - 354
    JournalEuropean Transport Research Review
    Issue number3
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed


    • Foresight
    • socio-technical change
    • transport system
    • vision


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