The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 °C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO2 emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO2 annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO2 reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO2 annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios.
- Climate stabilisation
- 2° target
- Multi-gas scenario
- Stochastic modelling
Syri, S., Lehtilä, A., Ekholm, T., Savolainen, I., Holttinen, H., & Peltola, E. (2008). Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation: Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 2(2), 274 - 285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2008.01.001