Handling of wind power forecast errors in the Nordic power market

Hannele Holttinen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Wind power production is variable by nature. These variations can be forecasted to some extent, by methods based on time series analysis or neural networks, for example. When forecasting more than 4 hours ahead, meteorological forecasts for wind speed are needed. The longer the time horizon, the more difficult it gets to forecast the production accurately, especially at hour-to-hour precision. Forecasting day ahead means having to correct on average 30-40 % of wind power production later. To handle the forecast errors, there can be trade up to the delivery hour, and the final imbalances to schedules are charged by regulating power prices. This paper outlines the forecast errors of wind power producers in the electricity market. The resulting benefits of shorter times between bids and delivery of production, as well as the benefits of pooling wind power production from larger areas are presented.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2006 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS
PublisherIEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers
ISBN (Print)978-91-7178-585-5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2006
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
Event9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2006 - Stockholm, Sweden
Duration: 11 Jun 200615 Jun 2006
Conference number: 9

Conference

Conference9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2006
Abbreviated titlePMAPS 2006
CountrySweden
CityStockholm
Period11/06/0615/06/06

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