Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system

Topi Rasku (Corresponding Author), Jari Miettinen, Erkka Rinne, Juha Kiviluoma

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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    Abstract

    One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.
    Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely.
    In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study.
    15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation.
    While decreases in total yearly operational costs as well as hydropower spillage and wind power curtailment were observed until forecast horizons up to around 132--156 hours ahead of time, the relative cost reductions remained rather insignificant at around 0.20--0.35 \% and 0.10 pp respectively.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number116668
    Number of pages33
    JournalEnergy
    Volume192
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2020
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

    Fingerprint

    Time and motion study
    Cost reduction
    Wind power
    Scheduling
    Planning
    Economics
    Costs
    Uncertainty
    Hot Temperature

    Keywords

    • Unit commitment
    • Economic dispatch
    • Hydro-thermal scheduling
    • stochastic programming
    • Energy forecasting

    Cite this

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    title = "Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system",
    abstract = "One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely.In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study.15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation.While decreases in total yearly operational costs as well as hydropower spillage and wind power curtailment were observed until forecast horizons up to around 132--156 hours ahead of time, the relative cost reductions remained rather insignificant at around 0.20--0.35 \{\%} and 0.10 pp respectively.",
    keywords = "Unit commitment, Economic dispatch, Hydro-thermal scheduling, stochastic programming, Energy forecasting",
    author = "Topi Rasku and Jari Miettinen and Erkka Rinne and Juha Kiviluoma",
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    language = "English",
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    Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system. / Rasku, Topi (Corresponding Author); Miettinen, Jari; Rinne, Erkka; Kiviluoma, Juha.

    In: Energy, Vol. 192, 116668, 01.02.2020.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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    AU - Rasku, Topi

    AU - Miettinen, Jari

    AU - Rinne, Erkka

    AU - Kiviluoma, Juha

    N1 - Available online 5 December 2019. 24 months embargo

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    AB - One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely.In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study.15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation.While decreases in total yearly operational costs as well as hydropower spillage and wind power curtailment were observed until forecast horizons up to around 132--156 hours ahead of time, the relative cost reductions remained rather insignificant at around 0.20--0.35 \% and 0.10 pp respectively.

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