TY - JOUR
T1 - Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system
AU - Rasku, Topi
AU - Miettinen, Jari
AU - Rinne, Erkka
AU - Kiviluoma, Juha
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2020/2/1
Y1 - 2020/2/1
N2 - One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely. In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study. 15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation. Increasing the length of the modelled forecast horizon reduced the total yearly operational costs of the system by 0.18–0.41%, as well as the spillage of run-of-river hydropower and the curtailment of wind power by 0.42–0.47 and 0.05–0.07% points respectively.
AB - One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely. In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study. 15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation. Increasing the length of the modelled forecast horizon reduced the total yearly operational costs of the system by 0.18–0.41%, as well as the spillage of run-of-river hydropower and the curtailment of wind power by 0.42–0.47 and 0.05–0.07% points respectively.
KW - Unit commitment
KW - Economic dispatch
KW - Hydro-thermal scheduling
KW - stochastic programming
KW - Energy forecasting
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85076251883&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.energy.2019.116668
DO - 10.1016/j.energy.2019.116668
M3 - Article
SN - 0360-5442
VL - 192
JO - Energy
JF - Energy
M1 - 116668
ER -