Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system

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Abstract

One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.
Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely.
In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study.
15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation.
While decreases in total yearly operational costs as well as hydropower spillage and wind power curtailment were observed until forecast horizons up to around 132--156 hours ahead of time, the relative cost reductions remained rather insignificant at around 0.20--0.35 \% and 0.10 pp respectively.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages33
JournalEnergy
Publication statusSubmitted - 12 Jun 2019
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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Time and motion study
Cost reduction
Wind power
Scheduling
Planning
Economics
Costs
Uncertainty
Hot Temperature

Keywords

  • Unit commitment
  • Economic dispatch
  • Hydro-thermal scheduling
  • stochastic programming
  • Energy forecasting

Cite this

@article{92d8b4bfd38943fabb73c1ff33e1630f,
title = "Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system",
abstract = "One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely.In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study.15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation.While decreases in total yearly operational costs as well as hydropower spillage and wind power curtailment were observed until forecast horizons up to around 132--156 hours ahead of time, the relative cost reductions remained rather insignificant at around 0.20--0.35 \{\%} and 0.10 pp respectively.",
keywords = "Unit commitment, Economic dispatch, Hydro-thermal scheduling, stochastic programming, Energy forecasting",
author = "Topi Rasku and Jari Miettinen and Erkka Rinne and Juha Kiviluoma",
year = "2019",
month = "6",
day = "12",
language = "English",
journal = "Energy",
issn = "0360-5442",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system. / Rasku, Topi; Miettinen, Jari; Rinne, Erkka; Kiviluoma, Juha.

In: Energy, 12.06.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system

AU - Rasku, Topi

AU - Miettinen, Jari

AU - Rinne, Erkka

AU - Kiviluoma, Juha

PY - 2019/6/12

Y1 - 2019/6/12

N2 - One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely.In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study.15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation.While decreases in total yearly operational costs as well as hydropower spillage and wind power curtailment were observed until forecast horizons up to around 132--156 hours ahead of time, the relative cost reductions remained rather insignificant at around 0.20--0.35 \% and 0.10 pp respectively.

AB - One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely.In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study.15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation.While decreases in total yearly operational costs as well as hydropower spillage and wind power curtailment were observed until forecast horizons up to around 132--156 hours ahead of time, the relative cost reductions remained rather insignificant at around 0.20--0.35 \% and 0.10 pp respectively.

KW - Unit commitment

KW - Economic dispatch

KW - Hydro-thermal scheduling

KW - stochastic programming

KW - Energy forecasting

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JF - Energy

SN - 0360-5442

ER -