Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system

Topi Rasku; Jari Miettinen; Erkka Rinne; Juha Kiviluoma

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2019.116668

Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system

Topi Rasku (Corresponding Author), Jari Miettinen, Erkka Rinne, Juha Kiviluoma

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Abstract

One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.
Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely.
In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study.
15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation.
While decreases in total yearly operational costs as well as hydropower spillage and wind power curtailment were observed until forecast horizons up to around 132--156 hours ahead of time, the relative cost reductions remained rather insignificant at around 0.20--0.35 \% and 0.10 pp respectively.

Original language	English
Article number	116668
Number of pages	33
Journal	Energy
Volume	192
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116668
Publication status	Published - 1 Feb 2020
MoE publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

Unit commitment
Economic dispatch
Hydro-thermal scheduling
stochastic programming
Energy forecasting

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10.1016/j.energy.2019.116668

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Licence: CC BY-NC-ND
Embargo ends: 13/12/21

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EL-TRAN: Transition to a Resource Efficient and Climate Neutral Electricity System
Rinne, E., Kiviluoma, J., Helistö, N., Holttinen, H. & Pursiheimo, E.
1/05/15 → 30/04/21
Project: Academy of Finland project
VaGe: Improving the value of variable and uncertain power generation in energy systems
Rinne, E., Kiviluoma, J., Holttinen, H., Miettinen, J. J., Helistö, N. & Reittu, H.
1/01/15 → 31/12/18
Project: Academy of Finland project

Cite this

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title = "Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system",

abstract = "One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely.In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study.15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation.While decreases in total yearly operational costs as well as hydropower spillage and wind power curtailment were observed until forecast horizons up to around 132--156 hours ahead of time, the relative cost reductions remained rather insignificant at around 0.20--0.35 \% and 0.10 pp respectively.",

keywords = "Unit commitment, Economic dispatch, Hydro-thermal scheduling, stochastic programming, Energy forecasting",

author = "Topi Rasku and Jari Miettinen and Erkka Rinne and Juha Kiviluoma",

note = "Funding Information: This study was supported by the Academy of Finland project “Improving the value of variable and uncertain power generation in energy systems (VaGe)” (grant number 284973 ), which is part of the New Energy programme; as well as by the Strategic Research Council at the Academy of Finland , project “Transition to a resource efficient and climate neutral electricity system (EL-TRAN)” (grant number 314319 ). The hydropower inflow time series for Norway and Sweden were kindly provided by Linn Emelie Sch{\"a}ffer at SINTEF Energy AS. Appendix A Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 Elsevier Ltd Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

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AU - Rasku, Topi

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AU - Kiviluoma, Juha

N1 - Funding Information: This study was supported by the Academy of Finland project “Improving the value of variable and uncertain power generation in energy systems (VaGe)” (grant number 284973 ), which is part of the New Energy programme; as well as by the Strategic Research Council at the Academy of Finland , project “Transition to a resource efficient and climate neutral electricity system (EL-TRAN)” (grant number 314319 ). The hydropower inflow time series for Norway and Sweden were kindly provided by Linn Emelie Schäffer at SINTEF Energy AS. Appendix A Publisher Copyright: © 2019 Elsevier Ltd Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2020/2/1

Y1 - 2020/2/1

N2 - One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely.In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study.15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation.While decreases in total yearly operational costs as well as hydropower spillage and wind power curtailment were observed until forecast horizons up to around 132--156 hours ahead of time, the relative cost reductions remained rather insignificant at around 0.20--0.35 \% and 0.10 pp respectively.

AB - One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely.In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study.15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation.While decreases in total yearly operational costs as well as hydropower spillage and wind power curtailment were observed until forecast horizons up to around 132--156 hours ahead of time, the relative cost reductions remained rather insignificant at around 0.20--0.35 \% and 0.10 pp respectively.

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Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system

Abstract

Keywords

Access to Document

Embargoed Document

EL-TRAN: Transition to a Resource Efficient and Climate Neutral Electricity System

VaGe: Improving the value of variable and uncertain power generation in energy systems

Cite this