Impact of 15-day energy forecasts on the hydro-thermal scheduling of a future Nordic power system

Topi Rasku*, Jari Miettinen, Erkka Rinne, Juha Kiviluoma

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)
233 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

One of the most promising ways of de-carbonising the energy sector is through increasing the amounts of inherently uncertain variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in power systems.
Typically, stochastic energy system studies have focused solely on the day-ahead horizon of 36 hours ahead of time, while studies about hydro-thermal scheduling and expansion planning often neglect VRE uncertainty entirely. In this work, the potential benefits of extending the horizon of VRE forecasts on the operation of hydro-dominated power systems was studied using a future Nordic system case study. 15-day ensemble weather forecasts were processed into realistic VRE forecasts up to 348 hours ahead of time, and their impacts on power system operations were simulated using stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch optimisation. Increasing the length of the modelled forecast horizon reduced the total yearly operational costs of the system by 0.18–0.41%, as well as the spillage of run-of-river hydropower and the curtailment of wind power by 0.42–0.47 and 0.05–0.07% points respectively.
Original languageEnglish
Article number116668
Number of pages33
JournalEnergy
Volume192
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2020
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

This study was supported by the Academy of Finland project “Improving the value of variable and uncertain power generation in energy systems (VaGe)” (grant number 284973), which is part of the New Energy programme; as well as by the Strategic Research Council at the Academy of Finland, project “Transition to a resource efficient and climate neutral electricity system (EL-TRAN)” (grant number 314319).

Keywords

  • Unit commitment
  • Economic dispatch
  • Hydro-thermal scheduling
  • stochastic programming
  • Energy forecasting

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